Russian intervention in the Syrian civil war

• 1. Strategic Objectives And Motivations

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  On the 30th of September 2015, Russia launched a military intervention in Syria after receiving a formal request from the regime of Bashar al-Assad. The operation began with extensive air strikes across Syrian territory, focusing on strongholds held by opposition factions such as the Free Syrian Army and Sunni militant groups comprising the Army of Conquest coalition. Prior to this intervention, Russian involvement had included diplomatic support for Assad and billions of dollars worth of arms and equipment for the Syrian Arab Armed Forces. In December 2017, the Russian government announced that its troops would be deployed to Syria permanently. At the onset of the intervention, the Syrian government controlled only 26% of Syrian territory. Weeks after the intervention began, Russian officials disclosed that President Vladimir Putin's chief objectives were maintaining the allied Ba'athist government in Damascus and capturing territories from American-backed Free Syrian militias. A broader geo-political objective was rolling back U.S. influence. In an October 2016 TV interview, General Leonid Ivashov said that Russia's engagement in the conflict would allow it to block proposed pipelines between the Middle East and Europe. This strategy aimed to ensure the dominance of Gazprom over energy supplies to Turkey and Europe. Another factor motivating Putin was his fear of massive protests within Russia. He accused the West of backing color revolutions to destabilize the region. His apprehensions were confirmed by the 2011-2013 Russian protests and the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity which ousted the pro-Russian regime of Viktor Yanukovich. Putin reacted by starting the Russo-Ukrainian War and annexing Crimea. In the face of deteriorating relations with the West, he intervened to prevent the collapse of the Assad regime.

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• 2. Military Buildup And Deployment

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  In August 2015, Russia began sending warplanes, T-90 tanks, artillery, and combat troops to an airbase near the port city of Latakia. On the 26th of August 2015, a treaty was signed between Russia and Syria permitting Russia to use Syria's Hmeimim airport free of charge indefinitely. Ratified by Russia's parliament in October 2016, this agreement granted Russian personnel and their family members jurisdictional immunity and other privileges as envisaged by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. By September 2015, warships of Russia's Black Sea Fleet reached the eastern Mediterranean. A joint information centre in Baghdad was set up by Iran, Iraq, Russia, and Syria to coordinate operations against ISIL. On the 7th of October 2015, four warships from the Russian Navy's Caspian Flotilla launched 26 3M-14T cruise missiles from Kalibr-NK systems that hit targets within Syrian territory. The missiles passed through Iranian and Iraqi airspace to reach targets at a distance of well over about 1,500 kilometres. In early January 2016, the cruiser Varyag was deployed off Syria's shore replacing sister ship Moskva. At the end of January 2016, Russia deployed four Su-35S fighter jets equipped with Khibiny electronic countermeasures systems to the Khmeimim base. In mid-February 2018, several Russian newest fifth generation Sukhoi Su-57 fighter aircraft were deployed to the Khmeimim air base. As of summer 2023, Russia had 20 military bases in Syria as well as 85 other military points, the majority located in Hama, Al-Hasakah, Latakia, and Aleppo provinces.

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• 3. Air Campaigns And Tactical Evolution

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  The first series of air strikes took place on the 30th of September 2015 around the cities of Homs and Hama, targeting Syrian opposition forces. On the 1st of November 2015, reports indicated that Hezbollah and Iranian fighters were preparing major ground offensives to be coordinated with Russian airstrikes. On the 14th of March 2016, Russian president Vladimir Putin announced that the mission he had set for the Russian military in Syria was on the whole accomplished and ordered withdrawal of the main part of the Russian forces from Syria. However, intensive operations by Russian forces resumed to support the Syrian government's bid to recapture the city of Tadmur which includes the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Palmyra. The city was fully recaptured from ISIS on the 27th of March 2016. In mid-March 2016, Russian de-mining teams engaged in clearing mines planted by ISIS in the ancient site of Palmyra. In early May 2016, news media reported that Russian ground forces had set up what Jane's Information Group called a forward operating base just to the west of the city of Tadmur. On the 8th of July 2016, a Syrian Mi-25 helicopter was destroyed on the ground from a United States-made BGM-71 TOW east of Palmyra. On the 1st of August 2016, a Russian Mi-8AMTSh transport helicopter was shot down on its way back to the Khmeimim base from a humanitarian mission to Aleppo. Three crew members and two officers from the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria were killed in the crash. Their corpses were desecrated by rebels who arrived on the scene. By mid-December 2016, the Syrian government with help from allies including Russia re-established control of Aleppo.

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• 4. Civilian Casualties And War Crimes Allegations

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  The Syrian Network for Human Rights and Violations Documentation Centre stated that from September 2015 until the end of February 2016, Russian air strikes killed at least 2,000 civilians. The UK-based pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights issued a slightly lower estimate: at least 1,700 civilians, including more than 200 children. Weapons used included unguided bombs, cluster bombs, incendiaries similar to white phosphorus, and thermobaric weapons. By the end of April 2018, the SOHR documented that Russian bombings directly killed more than 7,700 civilians, about a quarter of them children. The Russian campaign has been criticised by numerous international bodies for indiscriminate aerial bombings across Syria that target schools and civilian infrastructures. Findings of BMJ Global Health and a UN investigation report published in 2020 revealed that the RuAF also weaponized health-care through its hospital bombardment campaigns. They pursued a deliberate policy of bombing ambulances, clinical facilities, hospitals, and all medical infrastructure. Russia reportedly employed double tap strikes to target relief workers. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International stated that Russia was committing war crimes and deliberately targeting civilians. On the 30th of August 2019, warplanes of the Assad regime and Russia killed seven civilians in attacks in northwestern Syria while the region had been under ceasefire.

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• 5. Great Power Competition And Diplomatic Friction

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  On the 24th of November 2015, a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 strike aircraft was shot down by a Turkish Air Force F-16. The pilot was shot and killed by Syrian rebels while descending by parachute. A Russian marine was injured during the rescue operation and later died en route to a medical center. Before the incident, Russian military jets had repeatedly violated Turkish airspace causing political tension. On the 18th of September 2018, during multiple missile strikes by Israeli F-16 jets at targets in western Syria, Russia's Il-20 ELINT reconnaissance plane returning to Khmeimim Air Base with 15 Russian servicemen on board was inadvertently downed by a Syrian S-200 surface-to-air missile. Russia's defence minister blamed Israel's military for the accident. Early on the 20th of September, Russia announced multiple areas of eastern Mediterranean near Syria, Lebanon, and Cyprus shut for air and sea traffic until the 26th of September due to naval drills. On the 27th of February 2020, two Russian Su-34s conducted an airstrike on a Turkish military convoy killing at least 34 Turkish regular troops. Turkey did not officially blame Russia for the airstrike while Russia denied responsibility saying that the Syrian Air Force was likely behind the strike. In May 2022, a Russian operated S-300 missile system is said to have fired a missile at a F-16 operated by the IAF. If confirmed it would be the first time Russian forces have fired on Israeli jets.

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• 6. Regional Alliances And Proxy Dynamics

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  In mid-October 2015, a joint Russian-Syrian-Iranian-Hezbollah offensive targeting rebels in Aleppo went ahead. According to pro-opposition citizen journalist group Raqqa Is Being Slaughtered Silently, Russia lied about targeting ISIL in early airstrikes. On the 16th of August 2016, Russian Tu-22M bombers and Su-34 strike fighters began using Iran's Hamedan Airbase for conducting raids over Syria. This marked the first time Russia used Iran as a base to bomb Syrian militants. On the 19th of September 2017, the Russian MoD stated that U.S.-supported SDF had twice attacked positions of the Syrian Army in Deir ez-Zor governorate with mortar and rocket fire. The statement claimed that fire from positions in regions controlled by the SDF would be suppressed by all means necessary. Relations between Russia and Turkey strained significantly when Turkey sent heavy armour and thousands of its regular troops to fight on the side of rebels. Direct Russian strikes on regular Turkish forces were reported. On the 15th of March 2019, Russian and Turkish forces started joint-patrols on the M4 highway as part of a ceasefire agreement. In November 2019, Russian aviation struck a concentration of militants in Jisr al-Shughur in Idlib province. Massive bombing came two days after Bashar al-Assad issued an ultimatum to militants demanding they leave or surrender.

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• 7. Operational Withdrawal And Regime Collapse

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  On the 11th of December 2017, Vladimir Putin visited the Russian base in Syria where he announced that he had ordered partial withdrawal of forces deployed to Syria. Several hours later, Sergei Shoigu said troops had already begun returning. At the end of December 2017, Sergei Shoigu claimed that the Russian military had eliminated several thousand terrorists while 48,000 Russian armed forces members gained combat experience during the operation. As of 2024, the Russian operational group in Syria consisted of special forces units, base security units, and part of an Air Force unit maintained on rotational basis. During the Northwestern Syrian offensive in 2024, the Russian Air Force renewed operations conducting airstrikes since militants launched their offensive against Assad's forces in late November. The airstrikes were limited and instead bombed civilian targets in Idlib. In November 2024, renewal of Russian airstrikes failed to halt Syrian opposition offensives across the country. In wake of Syrian opposition advances and widespread collapse of Syrian government forces, Russia began withdrawing its forces. The fall of the Assad regime followed in December. Russian forces at that time consisted of special forces, base security, and an aviation unit.

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