Coup d'état
A painting from 1840 by François Bouchot captures General Napoleon Bonaparte during the Coup of 18 Brumaire in Saint-Cloud. This image represents a classic illegal and overt attempt by a military organization to unseat an incumbent person or leadership. Scholars distinguish this standard coup from related terms like self-coups where leaders use legal means to gain power but then stay through illegal methods. A palace coup occurs when one faction within a ruling group displaces another faction without external intervention. These internal struggles have plagued empires since antiquity, including the Harem conspiracy of the 12th century BC. Modern definitions also separate coups from revolutions which usually start spontaneously among larger groups of uncoordinated people. Sometimes plotters label their actions as revolutions to feign democratic legitimacy while actually executing a small conspiracy.
The phrase comes directly from French meaning literally a stroke of state or blow of state. In French the word is capitalized when it denotes a sovereign political entity. Although the concept has featured in politics since antiquity the phrase itself appeared in English texts only after the 19th century. One early use within text translated from French was in 1785 in a printed translation of a letter from a French merchant. The Norfolk Chronicle on the 13th of August 1785 reported that some thought a Coup d'Etat played off as a prelude to a disagreeable after-piece. What may be its first published use within a text composed in English is an editor's note in the London Morning Chronicle dated 1804. This report described the arrest by Napoleon in France of Moreau Berthier Masséna and Bernadotte. The British press later used the phrase to describe various murders by Napoleon's alleged secret police who executed the Duke of Enghien.
According to Clayton Thyne and Jonathan Powell's coup data set there were 457 coup attempts from 1950 to 2010. Of these 227 which equals 49.7% were successful while 230 which equals 50.3% were unsuccessful. Coups have been most common in Africa accounting for 36.5% of global attempts and the Americas at 31.9%. Asia experienced 13.1% of total global coups while the Middle East saw 15.8%. Europe has experienced by far the fewest coup attempts at just 2.6%. Most coup attempts occurred in the mid-1960s but large numbers also happened in the mid-1970s and early 1990s. From 1950 to 2010 a majority of coups failed in the Middle East and Latin America. They had a somewhat higher chance of success in Africa and Asia. Numbers of successful coups have decreased over time according to multiple political science datasets starting in the post-World War II period.
A 2003 review of academic literature found that officers' personal grievances influenced coups alongside military organizational grievances. Economic decline domestic political crisis and contagion from other regional coups also appeared as key factors. A 2016 study included mentions of ethnic factionalism supportive foreign governments leader inexperience slow growth commodity price shocks and poverty. Harkness (2016) finds that concentration of force in a small number of units near the capital increases the likelihood of a coup. Djuve et al. (2020) report robust evidence that low income slow or negative growth predict a higher likelihood of regime breakdown. An IMF paper from 2024 states that acute exogenous shocks immediately elevate the probability of a coup d'état. These stressors include compromised economic growth deterioration of the external financial position and elevated levels of generalized food price inflation. Structural fragility intensifies the likelihood of a coup when these stressors are present.
The accumulation of previous coups is a strong predictor of future coups known as the coup trap. A 2014 study of 18 Latin American countries found that establishing open political competition helps bring countries out of this cycle. Researchers have long debated whether coups are contagious meaning one coup increases the likelihood of others in the region. A 2018 study found no evidence of regional contagion while a 2025 study challenges earlier findings by showing dynamics can be contagious through post-coup trajectories. Weaknesses across multiple structural dimensions exhibit a synergistic effect exponentially increasing a country's susceptibility to political system fragilization. The co-occurrence of multiple stressors similarly compounds the overall risk profile. A disproportionately young population structure combined with widespread poverty high income inequality and significant ethnic fractionalization predispose a state to instability.
A 2016 study categorizes four possible outcomes to coups in dictatorships including failed coups no regime change replacement with another dictatorship and democratization. About half of all coups in dictatorships install new autocratic regimes which engage in higher levels of repression. One-third of coups during the Cold War and 10% of later ones reshuffled the regime leadership without changing the system type. Democracies were installed in the wake of 12% of Cold War coups in dictatorships and 40% of post-Cold War ones. Since the end of the Cold War coups have become rarer and more likely to be followed by democratization. Research published in 2021 indicates that successful coups orchestrated by ruling elites function primarily to recalibrate the authoritarian coalition. In contrast successful coups initiated by non-elite actors often lead to the collapse of the authoritarian regime generating a
tangible opening for democratic transition.
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Common questions
What is the definition of a coup d'état according to historical examples?
A coup d'état is an illegal and overt attempt by a military organization to unseat an incumbent person or leadership. This concept has existed since antiquity but the phrase itself appeared in English texts only after the 19th century.
When did the term coup d'état first appear in English publications?
The phrase appeared in English texts only after the 19th century with one early use in a printed translation from 1785. The first published use within a text composed in English was an editor's note in the London Morning Chronicle dated 1804.
Which regions experienced the most coup attempts between 1950 and 2010?
Coups have been most common in Africa accounting for 36.5% of global attempts and the Americas at 31.9%. Europe has experienced by far the fewest coup attempts at just 2.6% during this period.
What factors increase the likelihood of a successful coup d'état?
Economic decline domestic political crisis and contagion from other regional coups are key factors that influence coups. Structural fragility intensifies the likelihood when stressors like low income slow growth and food price inflation are present.
How do modern studies define the outcomes of coups in dictatorships?
About half of all coups in dictatorships install new autocratic regimes which engage in higher levels of repression. Democracies were installed in the wake of 12% of Cold War coups in dictatorships and 40% of post-Cold War ones.