Hurricane Milton

• 1. Introduction

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  Hurricane Milton produced computer forecasts so aggressive that a National Hurricane Center forecaster singled them out. Eric Blake described the guidance as "bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin." That was in early October 2024, and the system in question was still a small storm in the Gulf of Mexico. Its likely target was the west coast of Florida, a state whose Big Bend region Hurricane Helene had devastated less than two weeks earlier. This documentary follows Milton from a quiet wave leaving Africa to the recovery and the arguments that came after. How did a modest disturbance become one of the most intense hurricanes the Atlantic has ever recorded? What did the storm do to the places in its path? And what happened when a state had to prepare for a second disaster while it was still clearing away the first?

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• 2. Wave to Landfall

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  A tropical wave left the western coast of Africa on the 14th of September 2024 with little thunderstorm activity, and it crawled westward. On the 18th of September it met two other disturbances near the Cabo Verde Islands, again with almost no convection. By the 22nd the combined system was slightly better organized. On the 26th, as it passed through the Lesser Antilles, the National Hurricane Center began outlining an area where it might develop once it reached the western Caribbean Sea.

  Waiting in that region was a Central American gyre, a broad area of low pressure centered over Central America. The same kind of gyre had earlier played a part in the formation of both Hurricane Helene and Hurricane John. After the wave and the gyre interacted, the combined system degenerated into a broad trough on the 1st of October. Its southern end then merged with the remnants of an unnamed Eastern Pacific tropical storm and with a stationary front, and it consolidated in the Bay of Campeche.

  Forecasters designated the disturbance Invest 92L by the 4th of October. By 12:00 UTC on the 5th it had become a tropical depression, about 135 miles east of Tampico, Mexico. Six hours later satellite wind data showed gale-force winds, and the National Hurricane Center upgraded it to Tropical Storm Milton. Its tropical storm-force winds extended only 30 nautical miles from the center, which made Milton a relatively small storm.

  Milton first moved slowly north, but a ridge of high pressure to the north and a frontal low in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico halted that progress. Spiral banding and steady bursts of thunderstorms strengthened it through the early morning of the 6th of October. By that afternoon, Hurricane Hunters found that Milton had become a hurricane with an intermittent eye.

  Overnight, Milton began a period of explosive intensification. Sea surface temperatures near 31 C, humid air in the middle of the atmosphere and low wind shear all favored it. A pinhole eye only 4 nautical miles across developed inside very deep thunderstorms registering around -80 C. By 11:00 UTC on the 7th of October Milton was a major hurricane, and by 16:00 UTC it was a Category 5, the second of the season. At one point Hurricane Hunters measured the pressure dropping from 925 to 912 millibars in a single hour.

  The estimated peak came at 20:00 UTC that day, with sustained winds of 180 mph (285 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 895 millibars. Between 03:00 and 20:00 UTC, the pressure fell from 977 to 895 millibars, an 82-millibar drop, while winds rose by 90 mph. That was the third-fastest rapid intensification in the Atlantic, behind Wilma and Hurricane Felix, and the fastest in the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure tied the Gulf of Mexico record set by Hurricane Rita in 2005, and it was the lowest since Wilma that same year. In its post-analysis report, the National Hurricane Center cautioned that this estimate carried more uncertainty than normal. Milton was the thirteenth named storm, ninth hurricane and fourth major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, and the strongest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world that year.

  The peak did not last. An eyewall replacement cycle, in which a storm rebuilds its inner core, halted further strengthening, and Milton weakened rapidly to Category 4 later that night. A larger eye formed, and a second round of rapid deepening carried the storm back to Category 5 by the afternoon of the 8th of October. Its secondary peak, at 22:05 UTC, was 165 mph (270 km/h) and 902 millibars. About then Milton began turning northeast and accelerating, pulled toward Florida by a trough.

  On the 9th of October the hurricane briefly slipped to Category 4 and then reached Category 5 for a third time at 08:25 UTC, with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h) and a pressure of 907 millibars. Within hours, strong southwesterly wind shear began to tear at it. The eye filled with cloud, the thunderstorms turned ragged, and Milton dropped below Category 5.

  Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida, at about 00:30 UTC on the 10th of October, which was 8:30 p.m. local time on the 9th. It was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Crossing the state, it weakened quickly and emerged over the Atlantic Ocean as a Category 1 hurricane, increasingly tangled with a frontal boundary. On the afternoon of the 10th it became a hurricane-force extratropical low. It passed near Bermuda, grew more diffuse, and dissipated early on the 12th of October. Scientists later asked how much of its strength the unusually warm Gulf water had supplied.

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• 3. Climate Fingerprints

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  Climate Central scientists put a number on how unusual the water beneath Milton was. Using the group's Climate Shift Index: Ocean model, they examined the abnormally high sea surface temperatures behind the storm's fast intensification. Those temperatures, they found, were 400-800 times more probable because of climate change.

  Scientists at the World Weather Attribution center looked at the rain and the wind. They calculated that one-day rainfall events like those in Milton produced 20-30% more rain because of climate change, and that the hurricane's wind speed was 10% higher. Using statistical modeling, they hypothesized that "without climate change Milton would have made landfall as a Category 2 instead of a Category 3 storm."

  Researchers at Imperial College London, applying extreme event attribution, reached a conclusion about money. In October 2024 they concluded that 45% of the loss in Florida from Milton could be attributed to climate change. How large that loss was depended heavily on who was counting.

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• 4. Preparing for Landfall

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  On the 6th of October 2024, Mexico issued a tropical storm watch for the northern coast of the Yucatán Peninsula, from Celestún to Cancún. Later that day the watch grew into tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches, and the next day into hurricane warnings. Quintana Roo Governor Mara Lezama reported that 2,711 people voluntarily left Isla Holbox. The Federal Electricity Commission sent hundreds of workers and pieces of equipment to Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, and the Mexican Navy deployed around affected regions to distribute resources. Tren Maya services were suspended, panic buying appeared in Mérida, and Governor Joaquín Díaz Mena ordered every school and port in Yucatán closed.

  Coastal Georgia was placed under a tropical storm warning, and on the 8th of October Governor Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency across 40 counties. His order called up to 250 Georgia National Guard troops. Atlanta Motor Speedway had already opened its campground on the 7th of October to evacuees, including people from Florida, with pop-up campers, tents and a shower house. In the Bahamas, a tropical storm watch for the extreme northwest islands on the 8th was upgraded to a warning six hours later. Schools closed on Grand Bahama, Bimini, Abaco and Grand Cay, and the Royal Bahamas Defence Force went on standby. Bahamasair flew two flights to Orlando on the 7th and the 8th of October to carry Bahamian students out of Florida.

  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on the 5th of October. His executive order kept debris sites and landfills in counties hit by Hurricane Helene open around the clock. It also raised the number of Florida National Guardsmen working on debris removal from 800 to 4,000, so that mounds of wreckage would not become a hazard in Milton's winds.

  Two days later, hurricane and tropical storm warnings covered Florida's west coast, nearly 15 million people were under flood watches, and President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration. DeSantis suspended tolls on many roads in western Florida, including Florida's Turnpike. Public schools in over 50 counties and 23 public colleges and universities canceled classes or closed, and several counties turned schools into emergency shelters. An estimated six million Floridians were ordered to evacuate, one of the largest orders since Hurricane Irma in 2017. The orders fell mostly in Hillsborough and surrounding counties, and Uber offered free rides to state shelters.

  Tampa International, Sarasota-Bradenton, St. Pete-Clearwater, Palm Beach and Orlando airports all closed temporarily, and thousands of flights were canceled. Amtrak suspended its Silver Service between Jacksonville and Miami from the 7th to the 11th of October. Walt Disney World and Legoland Florida shut their gates. The Hera launch on the 7th of October went ahead as planned, but the launch of the Europa Clipper spacecraft was delayed, and SpaceX Crew-8's return was postponed to the 13th. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers relocated to New Orleans before their game against the Saints that day, and the Tampa Bay Lightning's season opener against the Carolina Hurricanes on the 12th was postponed. At ZooTampa and other zoos, staff moved animals into bathrooms and other secure areas, and some workers planned to stay with them.

  Shoppers cleared shelves of bottled water, canned goods and snacks at Publix and Walmart. By the afternoon of the 8th of October, GasBuddy reported that 16.5% of Florida's gas stations were out of fuel, including 43% in the Tampa Bay area. DeSantis said replenishment was underway and denied that there was a fuel shortage, and the Florida Highway Patrol began escorting tankers. He urged evacuees to travel "tens of miles" instead of "hundreds of miles." Thirty-three Waffle House locations in the projected path closed, which put the Waffle House Index at red.

  The Federal Emergency Management Agency had only 9% of its staff available ahead of the storm. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said the agency was ready, adding "we can respond to multiple events at a single time." Over the previous five years, at least 25% of staff had been available by the 7th of October, and even in 2017, while FEMA answered Harvey, Irma and Maria, availability fell only to 19%. Biden postponed a planned trip to Angola and Germany to oversee the response, and he told people at risk to evacuate, calling it a matter of life and death.

  The evacuations themselves cost lives. One person died in a car accident in Marion County, southeast of Orange Lake, and two died on eastbound SR 82. Three people were injured when a plane crashed into Tampa Bay after its engine failed on takeoff from Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg. All of these preparations were about to meet a track that bent just far enough south to spare the Tampa metropolitan area its worst case.

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• 5. Mexico and Beyond

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  Fifteen fishermen on four boats from Progreso went missing while out on the water as Milton passed. Two of the boats, carrying eight men, returned on the 9th of October. A day later, a Mexican Navy plane spotted the Peyucsa 12 overturned about 133 miles northeast of Progreso, with one man on top. The plane could not rescue him, so the pilots called for a Defender-class patrol boat. The man's brother, who was on the search plane, said he saw him slide off the hull face first and sink before the boat arrived. The Mexican Navy has not confirmed this account. On the 11th of October the Navy found the last missing boat, the Halcón I, capsized with no one on board.

  Heavy rain flooded the city of Campeche, and surge with torrential rain struck Yucatán state, where waves inundated the seawall at Progreso. More than 12,000 people in the state lost power. Surge flooding forced evacuations in Celestún, and sea water covered sections of the federal highway between Ciudad del Carmen and Isla Aguada. A man and a woman drowned in Calkiní because of the waves. Winds collapsed an old house in Progreso and nearly demolished a home in Chuburná.

  Sisal and Celestún suffered the most, with flooding, fallen trees and blackouts. Over a thousand people from El Cuyo, Río Lagartos and Las Coloradas moved into shelters. Waves and wind destroyed the dock at the port of Chelem, algae covered beaches in Dzilam de Bravo, and the storm even altered the salinity of nearby mangrove forests. Cancún International Airport canceled several flights. Losses came to between Mex$1.2 billion and Mex$1.6 billion, or US$61.2-81.4 million. Mexico recorded three deaths, with six people still counted as missing.

  In Cuba, rainbands from Milton brought flooding, first reported in Surgidero de Batabanó. Officials suspended ferry service in Havana Bay on the 8th of October. The Institute of Meteorology reported winds of 25-30 mph (40-48 km/h) in western Cuba and gusts of 50 mph (80 km/h) in Casablanca, Havana.

  In the Bahamas, Bimini and West Grand Bahama had strong winds and waves, a few islands lost power and water, and Grand Bahama and Abaco saw coastal flooding. Aarone Sargeant, managing director of the Disaster Risk Management Authority, reported no injuries or significant damage.

  Gusts reached only 22 mph in Savannah, Georgia. On Tybee Island the impact was lighter than expected, though beaches stayed closed because of rip currents. In South Carolina, gusts reached 40 mph at Hilton Head Airport and Charleston Harbor, again below what had been anticipated. Florida, where 42 of the storm's 45 deaths occurred, would tell a different story.

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• 6. Florida After Landfall

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  In Venice, Florida, sustained winds reached 92 mph with gusts to 107 mph, and Sarasota matched that gust. Farther along, Marineland recorded sustained winds of 83 mph with gusts to 92 mph, and Daytona Beach saw sustained winds of 60 mph with gusts to 87 mph. Ponce Inlet gusted to 99 mph, West Palm Beach to 92 mph and Orlando to 86 mph.

  St. Petersburg collected nearly 19 inches of rain, including 5.09 inches in a single hour. Plant City received over 13 inches, and Tampa's nearly 12 inches pushed the city to its wettest year on record. On the east side, Vero Beach logged 12.92 inches, Volusia County totals topped 12 inches, Indian River County exceeded 10 inches, and even Flagler Beach had 5.61 inches.

  Storm surge of 5 to 10 feet (1.52 to 3.04 m) was recorded from Naples to Siesta Key, including Charlotte Harbor. Water levels rose over 8 feet near Sarasota, and Naples saw 5.75 feet. Daytona's surge peaked between 4 and 4.5 feet. Tampa experienced the opposite, a reverse storm surge that dropped water levels by 5 feet. Inland, the Hillsborough River crested nearly 2 feet above its record at Zephyrhills, and at Morris Bridge it rose over 3 feet above record flood stage.

  Seven people died in St. Lucie County, four in Volusia County, two in Pinellas County and one each in Citrus, Polk and Orange counties. A falling tree killed one person by crashing into a roof in Ormond Beach. A woman in her late 70s died when a branch fell on her in Hillsborough County. In Charlotte County, an elderly man died of smoke inhalation in a Bradenton hospital after a golf cart lithium battery exploded at his home, which storm surge had flooded.

  Tropicana Field, which had been set up to house first responders, lost much of its fiberglass roof. As a result the Tampa Bay Rays played their 2025 home games at Steinbrenner Field. A construction crane from a nearby unfinished skyscraper collapsed into the Tampa Bay Times building in downtown St. Petersburg, with no injuries reported. Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport lost the entire roof of Concourse B, which held the TSA screening checkpoint and all 13 aircraft gate hold rooms. The combined effects of Helene and Milton on Al Lang Stadium forced the Tampa Bay Rowdies to play their last two home games at IMG Academy's Soccer Complex in Bradenton.

  In Clearwater, rescuers pulled 565 people from an apartment complex where the floodwater was neck-deep in places. More than 3 million homes and buildings lost power, with about 500,000 customers in Hillsborough County alone. By the 10th of October, nearly 1,000 people and 105 animals had been rescued. Sinkholes opened in Hillsborough County, in Orange City where US 17/92 collapsed, and in Polk County, where one swallowed a pickup truck. Damage reached $267 million in Volusia County and $280 million in Collier County, and commerce in Key West declined sharply after the Port of Key West closed.

  Fitch Ratings first estimated US$50 billion in damage and projected that most reinsurance attachment points would be met, so most insured losses would not fall on primary insurers. CoreLogic later estimated US$21-34 billion, while Moody's Analytics went much higher, at US$85 billion. The estimate released in January 2025 by the NCEI put the total at US$34.3 billion, almost all of it in Florida. That figure ranks Milton as the ninth-costliest Atlantic hurricane on record.

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• 7. Tornado Outbreak

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  At least 46 confirmed tornadoes touched down in Florida on the 8th and the 9th of October 2024, ahead of the storm's center. The outbreak focused on the Florida Heartland, the Treasure Coast and the Space Coast. It produced the largest single day of tornadoes in state history, surpassing the total set during Hurricane Irma.

  By 6 pm on the first day, the National Weather Service office in Miami had issued 55 tornado warnings, a one-day record that beat the 37 issued during Hurricane Ian on the 27th of September 2022. The Tampa Bay office set its own record of 29 warnings in a day, beating the 23 shared by Tropical Storm Debby in 2012 and Tropical Storm Andrea on the 6th of June 2013. Across Florida, 126 tornado warnings were issued, the second-most for any state in a single day. Only Alabama on the 27th of April 2011, at the height of the 2011 Super Outbreak, had more.

  Milton was the first tropical cyclone to produce an intense tornado, rated EF3 or stronger, in Florida since Agnes in 1972. It was only the third on record since 1950, and the first had come in 1959. An EF3 tornado injured ten people in Wellington. Another EF3 tornado severely damaged two warehouses and killed six people.

  The outbreak became Florida's fifth deadliest in 70 years. It trails the 1998 Kissimmee outbreak, which killed 42, the 2007 Groundhog Day outbreak, which killed 21, the outbreak of the 31st of March 1962, which killed 17, and the Hurricane Agnes outbreak, which killed seven.

  Afterward the National Guard worked with local law enforcement and first responders on rescues, immediate assistance and clearing vital roads. Local organizations, citizen groups, churches and individual volunteers provided supplies, temporary housing and emotional support. WPTV-TV partnered with local businesses in St. Lucie, Martin and Palm Beach counties to raise money for victims. Property damage from the outbreak alone was estimated at $681.8 million.

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• 8. Aftermath and Reckoning

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  Taylor Swift donated $5 million toward combined Milton and Helene relief, and Walmart gave $16 million. Other celebrities were reported to have contributed too, including Dolly Parton, Morgan Wallen, Blake Lively, Tom Brady and Metallica. The Baltimore Orioles gave at least $250,000.

  President Joe Biden issued a disaster declaration for Florida on the 12th of October. By the 13th, more than 250,000 Floridians had registered for help, the most in a single day in national history. That day Biden flew into MacDill Air Force Base aboard Air Force One, switched to Marine One for an aerial tour of St. Petersburg, and landed at Albert Whitted Airport. He met Senator Rick Scott, Representative Anna Paulina Luna and Pinellas County Sheriff Bob Gualtieri, then traveled to St. Pete Beach to meet residents and first responders. In his speech he announced $612 million for six Department of Energy projects to make electric grids more resilient in hurricane-affected areas, including $94 million for two projects in Florida.

  Most Florida tolls returned on the 14th of October, with exceptions for Orlando and Tampa. Widespread fuel shortages followed the storm, and DeSantis opened three fuel sites where residents could get ten gallons. Much of Cumberland Island National Seashore reopened on the 12th of October, and Canaveral National Seashore began reopening on the 19th.

  With the presidential election weeks away, the Florida Supervisors of Elections wrote on the 15th of October to Secretary of State Cord Byrd and Division of Elections Director Maria Matthews. They asked for relaxed voting rules in ten counties, including Collier, Pinellas, Sarasota and St. Lucie. The requests covered extensions to early voting and to mail-in ballot deadlines, and flexibility in relocating polling places.

  Vibrio vulnificus, a flesh-eating bacteria that favors warm water and spreads in heavy flood rains, rose in Florida, with 38 confirmed cases in October after Milton. Standing water left by Milton and Helene also caused an outbreak of dengue fever. Among adults with chronic diseases, depression and anxiety symptoms and cigarette use rose after the two hurricanes.

  Misinformation and conspiracy theories about the storms and the government response spread on social media, as they had after Helene. Some of the false claims concerned the nature of the storms and rescue operations by FEMA. In early November a whistleblower's report said FEMA supervisor Marn'i Washington had told team members it was "best practice" to skip Trump-supporting homes while canvassing Florida neighborhoods. Workers skipped at least 20 homes in Lake Placid with Trump signs or flags. FEMA said it was "deeply disturbed by this employee's actions" and that it helps all survivors regardless of political preference, and Washington was fired.

  On the 14th of November, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody filed a discrimination lawsuit against FEMA, accusing it of conspiring to violate the civil rights of Florida residents in its response to Helene and Milton. Between November 2024 and March 2025, Congress held four televised investigative hearings on the federal response, the overall recovery and the criminal events involving FEMA employees.

  Hours before landfall, the Florida Highway Patrol rescued an abandoned Bull Terrier tied to a post in belly-deep water on Interstate 75 near Bruce B. Downs Boulevard in Tampa. In May 2025 DeSantis signed Trooper's Law, named after the dog, which makes such abandonment a third-degree felony punishable by five years in prison and a $10,000 fine.

  On the 2nd of April 2025, at the 47th Session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name Milton because of the destruction in Florida. It will never be used again for an Atlantic hurricane. The name Miguel replaces it on the list, scheduled for use in the 2030 season.

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