Hokushin-ron
Field Marshal Prince Yamagata Aritomo traced the lines of a defensive strategy against Russia in February 1907. This Imperial National Defence guideline envisioned two strategies: Nanshu Hokushin Ron and Hokushu Nanshin Ron. The doctrine emerged from the First Sino-Japanese War during the 1890s. Japanese troops deployed as part of the Siberian Intervention remained until 1922. Planners discussed permanent occupation of Siberia east of Lake Baikal after World War I. The Russo-Japanese War between 1904 and 1905 provided early context for these strategic debates. Japan annexed Korea through the Treaty of 1910 to secure its northern flank. Manchuria and Siberia were viewed as Japan's sphere of interest by supporters known as the Strike North Group.
The Kwantung Army had 12,000 men available for the invasion of Manchuria in 1931. Insubordination by rogue military personnel led to the Mukden Incident that same year. War Minister Sadao Araki arranged for Chōsen Army forces to move north without permission from Tokyo. Prime Minister Reijirō Wakatsuki could only weakly protest when presented with this fait accompli. He resigned along with his cabinet shortly after. A puppet state named Manchukuo was formed in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia. This state operated under a form of constitutional monarchy. Seizing control of Manchuria provided an extensive de facto land border with the Soviet Union. This expansion was essential to the Hokushin-ron proposal for northern advance.
General Kenkichi Ueda believed Japan's main enemy was communism since he held strong views on the matter. General Yukio Kasahara felt the Soviet Union posed both a major threat and opportunity for Japan. The radical ultranationalist Imperial Way Faction included many young activists supporting preemptive strikes against the Soviet Union. They opposed the more moderate conservative Control Faction which favored cautious defense expansion. Relations between the Japanese Army and Navy were often marked by deep hostility dating back to the Meiji period. By the mid-1930s, there existed a serious possibility of clash between these two branches due to incompatible ideas. Kōdōha-affiliated officers launched an unsuccessful coup d'état during the February 26 Incident in 1936. Araki was forced to retire in March 1936 following the purge of Kōdōha generals from the Army.
A series of Soviet, Japanese border conflicts began without any formal declaration of war in 1932. Aggressive actions initiated by Japanese staff led to the disastrous Battles of Khalkhin Gol in 1939. These battles resulted in heavy casualties for the Kwantung Army and severely challenged its reputation. Any farther expansion northwards into Siberia proved impossible because of Soviet superiority in numbers and armour. General Ueda continued to support his officers' actions despite the failures. He remained adamant in his support of the Hokushin-ron policy throughout this period. Ueda was recalled back to Japan in late 1939 and forced into retirement. The Kwantung Army was purged of both insubordinate elements and proponents of Hokushin-ron after these events.
Japan and the USSR signed the Soviet, Japanese Neutrality Pact in April 1941. This agreement freed Japan for preparations for the Pacific War. When Nazi Germany launched its invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941, Japan did not join its Axis ally's invasion. Japan did not militarily engage with the Soviet Union again until August 1945 when Soviets declared war on Japan. Military setbacks on the Mongolian front led to a shift towards Nanshin-ron. Powerful industrial zaibatsu supported the Navy since they believed fulfilling Navy needs served their interests best. The ongoing Second Sino-Japanese War contributed to negative Western attitudes toward Japanese expansionist tendencies. European powers had been dominant in Southeast Asia for more than a century before this shift occurred.
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Common questions
What is Hokushin-ron and when did it emerge?
Hokushin-ron emerged from the First Sino-Japanese War during the 1890s as an Imperial National Defence guideline. Field Marshal Prince Yamagata Aritomo traced lines of a defensive strategy against Russia in February 1907 that included this doctrine.
Who were the key figures supporting the Strike North Group?
Supporters known as the Strike North Group viewed Manchuria and Siberia as Japan's sphere of interest. General Kenkichi Ueda believed Japan's main enemy was communism and remained adamant in his support of the Hokushin-ron policy throughout the period.
When did the Mukden Incident occur and what state formed afterward?
The Mukden Incident occurred in 1931 after insubordination by rogue military personnel led to the invasion of Manchuria. A puppet state named Manchukuo formed in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia later that same year under a form of constitutional monarchy.
Why did Japan abandon the Hokushin-ron proposal for northern advance?
Aggressive actions initiated by Japanese staff led to the disastrous Battles of Khalkhin Gol in 1939 which resulted in heavy casualties for the Kwantung Army. Any farther expansion northwards into Siberia proved impossible because of Soviet superiority in numbers and armour.
What agreement did Japan sign with the USSR in April 1941?
Japan and the USSR signed the Soviet, Japanese Neutrality Pact in April 1941. This agreement freed Japan for preparations for the Pacific War while Japan did not join Nazi Germany's invasion of the Soviet Union launched in June 1941.