Climate change in Africa

• 1. Emissions And Vulnerability

  ›

  Africa contributes the least to global greenhouse gas emissions while facing some of the most severe consequences. The continent is warming faster than the rest of the world on average, creating a stark contradiction between cause and effect. Large segments of the population depend on climate-sensitive livelihoods such as agriculture, which employs 55 to 62 percent of the workforce in sub-Saharan Africa. These communities already live in poverty, heightening their exposure to shocks from erratic weather patterns. Resource scarcity contributes to displacement and conflict, particularly in fragile regions across the continent. Over half of the over 2,000 recorded public health incidents in Africa between 2001 and 2021 were connected to climate change. This disparity defines the core crisis: those who emitted the least are suffering the most.

• 2. Temperature And Weather Shifts

  ›

  Observed surface temperatures have generally increased over Africa since the late 19th century by about 1 degree Celsius. Locally, minimum temperatures in the Sahel rose as much as 3 degrees at the end of the dry season. Current climate models predict increases in the frequency and intensity of drought and heavy rainfall events. A study published in 2019 predicted increased dry spell length during wet seasons alongside increased extreme rainfall rates. Researchers described this phenomenon as both ends of Africa's weather extremes getting more severe. The research found that most climate models cannot capture the extent of these changes because they lack convection-permitting capabilities at coarse grid scales. In rural areas, these shifting rainfall patterns directly influence water usage and agricultural survival.

• 3. Sea Level Rise Risks

  ›

  Some 54.2 million people lived in highly exposed low elevation coastal zones around the year 2000. That number effectively doubled to around 110 million people by 2030. By 2060, the population in these vulnerable zones will reach between 185 and 230 million depending on growth trends. Scientific studies estimate that 12 major African cities would collectively sustain cumulative damages of US$65 billion for moderate climate change scenarios by 2050. These cities include Abidjan, Alexandria, Algiers, Cape Town, Casablanca, Dakar, Dar es Salaam, Durban, Lagos, Lomé, Luanda, and Maputo. Under high-emission scenarios, damage could amount to US$86.5 billion or even up to US$137.5 billion with ice sheet instability. At least 750,000 people are likely to be displaced from East African coasts between 2020 and 2050.

• 4. Agriculture And Food Security

  ›

  Seventy percent of Africa's population relies on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Smallholder farms account for 80 percent of cultivated lands in sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2014 and 2018, Africa had the highest levels of food insecurity in the world. Yields from rainfed agriculture in some countries could be reduced by up to 50 percent by 2020 due to changing precipitation patterns. In the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya, over 70 percent of livestock mortality results from drought. Over the next decade, 52 percent of the ASAL cattle population faces risk of loss because of extreme temperature stress. Maize accounts for nearly half of the cultivated land in Southern Africa, where yields could decrease by 30 percent under future climate change. Crop pests already account for approximately one-sixth of farm productivity losses globally.

• 5. Public Health Crises

  ›

  Over 90 percent of annual global malaria cases occur within the African region. Changes in climate will affect the spread of infectious agents as well as alter people's disposition to these infections. Specific areas likely to experience year-round high-risk transmission of malaria are shifting from coastal West Africa to an area between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda known as the African Highlands. Rising temperatures in these highland areas have the potential to change normally non-malarial zones into areas with seasonal epidemics. In July 2021, the World Food Programme blamed the ongoing southern Madagascar food crisis solely on climate change rather than war or conflict. This was declared the first famine caused by climate change.

• 6. Regional Economic Impacts

  ›

  Africa loses between US$7 billion and US$15 billion a year due to climate change, projected to reach up to US$50 billion by 2030. On average, African countries face climate-related losses amounting to 2 to 5 percent of GDP annually. Africa's gross domestic product may decline by 2 percent as a result of a 1 degree Celsius rise in average world temperature. A 4 degree Celsius rise could cause GDP to drop by 12 percent. Adaptation costs in sub-Saharan Africa are projected at US$30 to 50 billion per year over the next decade. Climate financing in Sub-Saharan Africa totaled US$43.8 billion, representing only 3 percent of the global total in recent years. Over the last decade, Africa's contribution to worldwide greenfield foreign direct investment dropped from 12 percent in 2017 to less than 6 percent in 2021.

• 7. Adaptation Strategies And Finance

  ›

  During the 21st Conference of the Parties in 2015, African heads of state launched the Africa Adaptation Initiative. According to a 2023 study, 59 percent of African banks have a climate change policy in place. The International Monetary Fund states that Sub-Saharan Africa requires US$30 to 50 billion in additional financing each year to adapt to climate effects. Kenya gazetted the Climate Change Act in 2016 which establishes an authority to oversee development and management mechanisms for resilience. Tanzania has outlined priority adaptation measures in their National Adaptation Programme of Action since 2006. As of 2023, about one-third of all African climate funding flows to five major markets: Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Africa. These nations collectively receive significant portions of available resources despite broader needs across the continent.