Gilbert Plass
Gilbert Norman Plass stood at the Metallurgical Laboratory of the University of Chicago in 1942. He worked as an associate physicist during those critical war years until 1945. The Manhattan District project demanded his expertise in physics while he was still a young man. Before this assignment, he had graduated from Harvard University in 1941. His academic journey continued to Princeton University where he earned a PhD in physics by 1947. This early training laid the groundwork for decades of research into atmospheric gases and radiation.
Plass left academia in 1955 to work as a staff scientist with Lockheed Aircraft Corporation. He held that job for one year before joining Ford Motor Company. At Ford's Aeronutronic division, he joined the advanced research staff. By 1960, he managed the research lab within Ford's theoretical physics department. He also served as a consulting editor for the journal Infrared Physics. In 1963, he accepted a position as the first professor of atmospheric and space science at the Southwest Center for Advanced Studies. That institution later became known as The University of Texas at Dallas. He remained there for five years before moving to Texas A&M University in 1968. There he served as head of the physics department.
In 1953 Plass told Time magazine about his work on industrial carbon dioxide emissions. He stated that the gas would raise Earth's average temperature by 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit every 100 years. He warned that if industrial growth continued, the climate would keep warming for centuries. From 1956 onwards, he published papers using early electronic computers to calculate infrared radiation absorption. His calculations predicted that doubling carbon dioxide levels would warm the planet by 3.6 degrees Celsius. He forecasted that levels in 2000 would be 30% higher than in 1900. He estimated the planet would be about 1 degree Celsius warmer in 2000 compared to 1900. These predictions appeared in Scientific American in July 1959.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report released estimates in 2007 regarding climate sensitivity. It placed the range between 2 and 4.5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This matched Plass's earlier prediction of 3.6 degrees closely. The report noted a rise of 37% since pre-industrial times. It also recorded a warm-up of around 0.7 degrees from 1900 to 2000. Plass had predicted a 1-degree increase for that same period. Modern measurements reported half a century later showed his mid-century calculations were remarkably accurate. Nathaniel Rich recognized this accuracy in his 2019 bestseller Losing Earth. Rich wrote that Plass found fossil fuels might already have warmed Earth by 1 degree Celsius back in 1953.
Plass's work influenced later literature and media productions decades after his initial papers. An award-winning short film titled Invisible Blanket was released in 2018. That film was based directly on Plass's article published in Time magazine. His predictions gained renewed attention when Nathaniel Rich included him in Losing Earth. Rich quoted Plass as saying worth was yet to come despite early warming signs. The scientific community now views his 1956 and 1959 papers as foundational documents. They used advanced computers at the time to model infrared radiation absorption with surprising precision. These models remain relevant today as climate science continues to evolve.
Outside of physics, Gilbert Norman Plass pursued avid interests in stamp collecting. He founded the United States Possessions Philatelic Society in 1978. He served as editor of their journal called Possessions for 14 years. This hobby provided a creative outlet alongside his demanding research career. He also hosted a classical-music oriented radio program named Collector's Choice. The show aired on KAMU-FM for many years. These activities demonstrated his diverse intellectual pursuits beyond atmospheric science. They showed how he balanced technical rigor with cultural appreciation throughout his life.
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Common questions
When was Gilbert Norman Plass born and when did he die?
Gilbert Norman Plass lived from 1920 to 2004. He worked as an associate physicist at the Metallurgical Laboratory of the University of Chicago during the war years until 1945.
What specific temperature prediction did Gilbert Norman Plass make about carbon dioxide in 1953?
In 1953 Gilbert Norman Plass stated that industrial carbon dioxide emissions would raise Earth's average temperature by 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit every 100 years. His calculations predicted that doubling carbon dioxide levels would warm the planet by 3.6 degrees Celsius.
Where did Gilbert Norman Plass work after leaving academia in 1955?
Gilbert Norman Plass left academia in 1955 to work as a staff scientist with Lockheed Aircraft Corporation before joining Ford Motor Company. He later became the first professor of atmospheric and space science at The Southwest Center for Advanced Studies which is now known as The University of Texas at Dallas.
How accurate were Gilbert Norman Plass predictions compared to modern climate data?
Modern measurements reported half a century later showed his mid-century calculations were remarkably accurate regarding global warming trends. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report released estimates in 2007 placed the range between 2 and 4.5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of carbon dioxide matching his earlier prediction closely.
What philatelic society did Gilbert Norman Plass found and when?
Gilbert Norman Plass founded the United States Possessions Philatelic Society in 1978. He served as editor of their journal called Possessions for 14 years while also hosting a classical-music oriented radio program named Collector's Choice on KAMU-FM.