Energy transition

• 1. Defining Energy Transitions

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  The Industrial Revolution began around 1760, marking a shift from wood and biomass to coal. This historical change replaced local energy systems with global fossil fuel networks. An energy transition describes this broad structural alteration in how societies produce and consume power. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines it as moving from one state to another over time. Politicians first used the term after the oil crisis of 1973. US President Jimmy Carter called for a third major change in his 1977 Address on the Nation on Energy. He urged preparation for renewable sources like solar power alongside conservation efforts. Today, the current transition aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly. It seeks to phase down fossil fuels while electrifying processes globally.

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• 2. Historical Discourse Debates

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  Vaclav Smil argued that humanity experienced distinct transitions throughout history. His view highlights changes in the percentage mix of primary energy sources used by countries. Data shows shifts from biomass to coal, then to oil, and finally natural gas. Jean-Baptiste Fressoz offered a contrasting perspective known as energy additions. He claimed that total consumption has always increased rather than replacing old sources. For instance, burning more coal in the nineteenth century did not stop people from using wood. More wood was actually burned during that period. Similarly, passenger cars in the twentieth century required both oil for driving and coal for steel production. This approach suggests humans never performed a single transition but added new layers of consumption. Historical changes were protracted affairs unfolding over decades. The present transition unfolds under different policy conditions today.

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• 3. Drivers And Motivations

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  Climate change mitigation drives the rapid shift to zero-carbon sources. Coal, oil, and gas combustion account for 89% of global emissions yet provide 78% of primary energy consumption. Energy security became critical following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Europe sought independence from Russian gas supplies after years of dependence. Decentralized solar power offers resilience against military attacks compared to centralized refineries. Economic development also motivates developing economies like those in Sub-Saharan Africa. The International Energy Agency identified 37 minerals as critical for clean technologies. Global demand for these resources is projected to increase by 235 percent by 2050. From 2010 to 2019, wind and solar costs dropped sharply. Unit costs for solar energy fell by 85 percent while lithium-ion batteries dropped by 85 percent. These price reductions make renewables the cheapest form for new installations in many regions.

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• 4. Technological Infrastructure

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  Wind power supplied 5.3 percent of worldwide electricity in 2019 while solar provided 2.6 percent. Hydroelectricity remains the largest source of renewable electricity globally at 16 percent. Variable weather-dependent sources require dispatchable backup generation or storage solutions. Pumped storage hydroelectricity accounts for the majority of installed energy storage capacity worldwide. Large-scale batteries react within seconds to keep grids stable. The IEA report emphasizes increasing grid investments to over $600 billion annually by 2030. By 2040, the global grid must expand by more than 80 million kilometers. Heating systems are being electrified through heat pumps which offer high efficiency. Heat pumps currently provide only 5 percent of space heating requirements but could reach over 90 percent. Electric vehicles represent another key area of electrification for sustainable transport. Fast fluctuations from variable integration can be addressed by operating reserves and smart grids.

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• 5. Geopolitical And Economic Shifts

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  Energy costs reached 13 percent of global gross domestic product in 2021. Countries with fossil fuel resources face massive losses as demand shifts away from them. Higher oil prices historically link to fewer conflicts started by producing nations. When oil prices rise from low levels, military disputes between countries drop by about half. Conversely, declining oil revenue may increase conflict initiation rates among petrostates. Historical data from 1960 to 2014 shows periods of declining prices associate with higher conflict rates. Global rivalries drive economic forces behind the low carbon transition. Technological innovations developed domestically become significant economic assets. Fossil fuel industries lobby governments to limit regulations on their operations. Exxon Mobil spent nearly $16 million on anti-climate change lobbying between 1988 and 2005. The concept of divestment removes investment capital from oil, coal, and gas companies. Banks and institutions are shifting toward more sustainable eco-friendly investments.

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• 6. Social Justice And Labor

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  A just transition ensures no people or regions are left behind during the shift to a low carbon economy. Coal mining communities face severe impacts when businesses disappear or move elsewhere. These areas often suffer from energy poverty before experiencing economic collapse. Transitioning workforces requires considerable forethought and planning for rapid economic changes. The international labor movement advocates for addressing these workforce concerns directly. In the United States, retraining workers for renewable energy costs only 2 to 6 percent of federal subsidies. This reallocation could provide new careers with approximately equivalent pay for oil and gas workers. Increased mining for lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and other critical minerals creates environmental conflicts. Communities affected by extraction face environmental justice issues regarding land use and pollution. Rising energy prices resulting from transitions may negatively impact developing countries like Vietnam and Indonesia.

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• 7. Regional Case Studies

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  China's Fourteenth Five-Year Plan emphasizes green transition as essential for high-quality growth. India aims to transition 50 percent of total energy consumption into renewable sources under Paris accords. As of 2022, India produces 160 GW electricity from clean sources representing 40 percent of its total capacity. Bhadla Solar Park in India stands as the world's largest at 2255 MW. Germany implemented the Energiewende policy document published in September 2010. German renewables share increased from around 5 percent in 1999 to 46.2 percent in 2022. Switzerland accepted the Energy Act on the 21st of May 2017, establishing the energy strategy 2050. The European Union made Europe climate neutral a goal for 2050 through the European Green Deal. By 2020, renewables overtook fossil fuels as an electric power source in the EU. The United Kingdom plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050 by law.

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