Aging of Russia

• 1. Historical Population Trajectories

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  The Russian Empire held the fastest growing population among world powers before the First World War. Only the United States surpassed its growth rate during that era. Between 1920 and 1940, the RSFSR of the Soviet Union grew at an average of 1.11% per year. This period saw the population surpass 100 million people despite losses from war and famine. The Second World War caused exceptional demographic damage to the region. The Eastern Front accounted for up to 40 million of the 70, 85 million deaths attributed to World War II. Russia alone lost as much as 13 million people during this conflict. Young men bore the brunt of these war losses. Even in 1959, men still made up less than 45% of the overall population. After the 1960s, a small baby boom followed the war years. However, the proportion of those 60 and older doubled between 1959 and 1990. Despite this aging trend, the population remained relatively young with many women of childbearing age. The Russian population increased by 45,760,000 people from 1951 to 1990. Starting in the early 1990s, the age structure morphed into a state prompting eventual decline rather than growth.

• 2. War And Mortality Crises

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  The low fertility rate in the 1990s combined with a high mortality rate created millions of excess deaths relative to 1990 levels. This issue was not unique to Russia but felt across many developed countries. In 2020, over 500,000 deaths were attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic. Total deaths since the onset reached approximately 700,000. Death rates surpassed birth rates even though 2021 was initially projected to have less impact on mortality. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the demographic crisis deepened significantly. The country suffered high military fatalities while facing renewed brain drain and human capital flight. Western mass-sanctions and boycotts contributed to this exodus. Many commentators predicted that the situation would be worse than during the 1990s. Over the past three years, the country lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done. These losses resulted from war, disease, and exodus combined. The UN projects that if current conditions persist, Russia's population could drop to 135.8 million by 2050.

• 3. Economic Labor Shortages

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  The demographic crisis has negative economic effects when the proportion of the older generation is maximal at a relatively small share younger and middle generation. By 2025, Russia will face labor shortages according to projections. A reduced fertility rate increases the load on the working population because each worker must support more retirees. The fraction of the average working-age generation is maximal at a relatively small proportion of younger and older people during the second stage of changing age structure. This creates positive economic effects temporarily before shifting to negative impacts. Thousands of abandoned villages are scattered across Russia as a result of these shifts. The natural population declined by 997,000 between October 2020 and September 2021. This figure represents the difference between births and deaths over that period. The natural death rate in January 2020, 2021, and 2022 have each been nearly double the natural birth rate. Russian economist Alexander Isakov stated that emigration, lower fertility, and war-related casualties reduce the population further. These factors combine to create severe challenges for national productivity and economic stability.

• 4. Pandemic And Recent Trends

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  In March 2023, The Economist reported that the country lost around 2 million more people than it would ordinarily have done. War, disease, and exodus drove these losses over the past three years. President Vladimir Putin's plan to overturn stagnation was announced in 2017 in response to downward trends. The plan only partially helped their demographic crisis despite showing signs of recovery. It was hindered by the pandemic which caused massive mortality spikes. The UN projects that if current conditions persist, Russia's population could drop to 120 million in fifty years. This represents a decline of about 17% from current levels. In January 2024, Rosstat predicted that Russia's population could drop to 130 million by 2046 in a worst-case scenario. The UN's 2024 scenarios project Russia's population to be between 74 million and 112 million in 2100. This represents a decline of 25 to 50%. Natural population loss has continued since 2020 without being offset by positive migration balance. The median age rose significantly as a result of this crisis, increasing from 32.2 in 1990 to 40.3 in 2025.

• 5. Government Policy Responses

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  Many Russian politicians have called for reinstating the childless tax that existed from the 1940s until the 1990s due to declining birth rates. In August 2022, Russia revived the Soviet-era Mother Heroine award for women with ten children. In November 2024, President Vladimir Putin signed a bill into law banning Childfree Propaganda to boost birthrates. On the same year, a decree set life expectancy targets of 81 years by 2036. This updated an earlier goal of 78 years by 2030. The share of people aged 65 and older currently stands at 13% of the total population. According to forecasts from the early 2000s, elderly people aged 60 and over would account for 20% of Russians by 2016. Children up to 15 years old were projected to make up only 17%. Aging is limited by high mortality among older people in Russia compared to other countries. These policy measures aim to reverse decades of demographic decline through state intervention and social incentives.