Russian hybrid warfare

• 1. Little Green Men And Crimea

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  Soldiers without insignia appeared in Crimea during 2014, marking the start of a new era in Russian military strategy. These unmarked troops became known as little green men to observers and journalists worldwide. Their presence allowed Russia to annex the peninsula while maintaining plausible deniability about direct state involvement. The operation demonstrated how conventional warfare could be disguised through ambiguity and denial. This approach set a precedent for future conflicts where the aggressor avoids declaring war openly. The lack of uniforms made identification difficult for local authorities and international monitors on the ground.

• 2. Disinformation Campaigns And Elections

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  Broad disinformation campaigns targeted the 2016 US election and Brexit referendum to foster instability across Western democracies. Information operations spread false narratives designed to erode trust in democratic institutions and processes. These efforts did not rely solely on traditional media but utilized social platforms to amplify divisive content. The goal was to create confusion rather than to promote specific policy outcomes directly. By sowing discord, external actors sought to weaken political cohesion from within. The scale of these campaigns suggested coordination beyond simple propaganda efforts by independent groups.

• 3. Sabotage Of Critical Infrastructure

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  Western sources accused Russia of being responsible for the Nord Stream pipelines sabotage in September 2022. In May 2024, two undersea cables in the Baltic Sea were damaged during another suspected act of Russian sabotage. The Chinese-flagged ship Yi Peng 3 passed near the cables at approximately the same time each was cut. Deputy head of NATO's Allied Maritime Command noted that Russia and other malicious actors target vulnerable underwater infrastructure connecting Europe's energy and communications networks. In December 2024, an underwater power cable between Estonia and Finland was damaged on Christmas Day in Finnish waters. Finnish authorities placed a tanker ship named Eagle S at the center of its investigation into the incident being sabotage. The Finnish Border Guard inspected the ship and said that the ship's anchors were missing, the suspicion being that the ship cut the cables by dragging its anchors over them.

• 4. Religious Institutions As Fronts

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  The Swedish Security Service concluded that a recently consecrated Russian Orthodox church built in Västerås was linked to Russian intelligence operations. The Kremlin uses the Russian Orthodox Church in Sweden as a platform for such operations. The church was located near an airport used for Swedish military exercises and other critical national infrastructure. In January 2026, several churches in Sweden may have been used to host fundraisers linked to the Belarusian St. Elizabeth Monastery. Women from the convent set up a sales table at the parish of Täby with approval from the local priest. The women were dubbed Z-nuns because of images of them displaying the pro-war Russian Z symbol. They visited Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine while collecting funds that could support Russia's military aggression against Ukraine.

• 5. Migrant Flows And Border Chaos

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  Following the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, almost all airlines flying over the Baltics experienced navigation problems due to signal jamming. Violations of territorial waters and air space occurred against countries like Finland, Poland, and Sweden. Strategies included encouraging or permitting migrants from third countries to arrive at borders in large numbers through Russia and Belarus. In December 2025, Lithuania declared a state of emergency after several hundred balloons launched from Belarus caused civil aviation disruptions. Senior Lithuanian officials reported that these balloons could be used to probe for air-defence gaps. These actions created chaos along borders without triggering a formal declaration of war by any participating nation.

• 6. NATO Response And Article Five

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  On the 2nd of May 2024, the North Atlantic Council of NATO said that members of the alliance were deeply concerned by activities attributed to Russia on NATO territory. Investigations resulted in the charging of multiple individuals connected to hostile state activity. German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl stated in November 2024 that Russia's extensive use of hybrid warfare increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause. On the 22nd of October 2024, Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski withdrew consent to the functioning of the Russian consulate in Poznań. UK officials at a Defence Committee evidence session urged for stronger deterrence against hybrid threats in March 2025. Paul Wyatt noted adversaries seek to do harm in a manner they judge is below the Article 5 threshold.