International Futures
Barry B. Hughes created International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies within the University of Denver in Colorado. The project began as a personal initiative before evolving into a complex global assessment tool housed at what is now the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures. Early documentation from 2006 outlines multiple generations of development that transformed the initial concept into a robust software package available to the public. Hughes and Evan Hillebrand published Paradigm Publishing materials that detail this history while making the model free for both online and downloadable use. The evolution involved integrating diverse data streams and linking sub-models dynamically across economic, demographic, and environmental variables.
The model incorporates dynamically linked sub-models covering population, economic, agricultural, educational, energy, sociopolitical, international political, environmental, health, infrastructure, and technology sectors. This unique structure endogenizes the impact of such a wide range of global systems for 183 countries simultaneously. Elements of International Futures provide a structural explanation with block diagrams showing how these components interact without external forcing. The help system accompanying the software offers an extensive overview of the computer code used to write the style. Users can access detailed information about the internal mechanics through this built-in documentation rather than relying on external manuals.
Data analysis represents a collection of over 2,000 data series gathered from all major international data gatherers. These datasets form the foundation of the model structure and are constantly updated with new information as it becomes available. Users analyze historic data cross-sectionally by plotting one variable against up to five independent variables. Longitudinal analysis allows users to plot relationships between dependent variables and time starting from 1960 for most series. A world map feature enables display of any data series using GIS options to visualize spatial patterns across decades.
The National Intelligence Council utilized IFs in its Global Trends 2020 report alongside subsequent editions covering 2025 and 2030. Director of National Intelligence offices relied on the model's output for strategic forecasting documents titled Mapping the Future and Global Environmental Outlook. The United Nations Human Development Report also drew upon International Futures to forecast impacts of environmental constraints on human development. Google Public Data Explorer hosts the web-based version while the Atlantic Council provides another platform for public access. Strategic Foresight Initiative partners with the Institute for Security Studies to expand reach into African development planning contexts.
Frederick S. Pardee formerly of RAND gifted funds to construct the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver. This center manages further institutionalization of the software including training sessions and continued work on Patterns of Potential Human Progress volumes. The first volume discusses reduction in global poverty while the second covers global education systems. Subsequent books address health care systems, global infrastructure, and domestic governance structures. The journal Poverty and Public Policy reviewed these efforts noting their success in promoting thought about policy rather than simple prediction.
The African Futures Project operates as a collaboration between the Institute for Security Studies and the Pardee Center for International Futures. This partnership promotes long-term strategic planning specifically for African development through dedicated policy briefs and monographs. A website exists where users can explore the IFs model specifically for African development scenarios without needing general global data. Publications from this project include introductory videos and full text policy briefs available online. The initiative demonstrates how specialized regional applications emerge from broader global assessment frameworks.
Common questions
Who created International Futures and where was it developed?
Barry B. Hughes created International Futures at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies within the University of Denver in Colorado.
When did the development of International Futures begin and what year marked early documentation?
The project began as a personal initiative before evolving into a complex global assessment tool housed at what is now the Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures with early documentation from 2006 outlining multiple generations of development.
How many countries does International Futures cover simultaneously and which sectors are included?
This unique structure endogenizes the impact of such a wide range of global systems for 183 countries simultaneously while incorporating dynamically linked sub-models covering population, economic, agricultural, educational, energy, sociopolitical, international political, environmental, health, infrastructure, and technology sectors.
What years do Global Trends reports utilize International Futures for forecasting?
The National Intelligence Council utilized IFs in its Global Trends 2020 report alongside subsequent editions covering 2025 and 2030 to produce strategic forecasting documents titled Mapping the Future and Global Environmental Outlook.
Who funded the creation of the Pardee Center for International Futures and when was it established?
Frederick S. Pardee formerly of RAND gifted funds to construct the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver to manage further institutionalization of the software including training sessions and continued work on Patterns of Potential Human Progress volumes.