Greenhouse gas emissions by Russia

• 1. Introduction

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  Russia's greenhouse gas emissions average roughly 12 tons of carbon dioxide per person each year. The world average is less than half that. Russia is the fourth-largest national emitter on earth, releasing between 2 billion and 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent annually. Those are the numbers in the official inventories. But the real picture is harder to read. Some emissions go unmeasured. Others may be systematically underestimated. And the country's plan to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 sits alongside an energy strategy built largely around burning more fossil fuels. What follows traces how those emissions are produced, where the accounting gaps lie, and what Russia has actually committed to changing.

• 2. Energy Above All

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  In 2017, Russia's energy sector accounted for almost 80% of the country's total greenhouse gas output. That calculation, under IPCC guidelines, includes fuel burned for transport, not just power generation. Industrial processes and product manufacturing added more than 10%. Agriculture contributed 6% that same year, and waste accounted for 4%.

  Climate Trace, using satellite and sensor data, estimated that 60% of Russia's output came from fossil fuel operations. Another 24% came from the power sector. The single largest point source in the country was the Urengoyskoye gas field, which released more than 150 million tonnes of greenhouse gas equivalents in 2021.

  Russia released 2155 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2017 alone. Reducing that total, the evidence shows, would bring health benefits to Russian citizens that exceed the economic cost of the cuts themselves.

• 3. The Methane Gap

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  Russia is the world's largest national emitter of methane. In 2019 and 2020, analysts estimated that methane leaking from Russian infrastructure was worth 4 billion dollars. That number connects an environmental problem directly to a financial one. Every tonne of escaped gas is fuel that was extracted but never sold.

  The Washington Post has reported that Russia's methane figures are systematically under-reported in official inventories. If that assessment holds, Russia's true contribution to global warming is larger than what the country submits to international bodies.

• 4. Forests, Fire, and Carbon

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  In 2017, land use and forestry absorbed 578 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in Russia. That reabsorption offset roughly a quarter of the country's total emissions for the year. Forests are Russia's largest single natural counterweight to industrial output.

  Illegal logging in Russia operates alongside corruption, complicating efforts to accurately account for how much carbon those forests actually hold. Fires add pressure from another direction. Wildfires burn not just trees but peat, releasing carbon into the atmosphere. Black carbon from wildfire smoke settles on Arctic snow and ice, where it absorbs heat.

  Any significant loss of forest carbon would reduce the offset that currently softens Russia's reported emissions figure. That would make the country's path to its official targets harder to sustain.

• 5. Pledges and Contradictions

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  Russia's greenhouse gas emissions fell by 30% between 1990 and 2018, setting aside land use and forestry. In 2020, the government released a draft long-term climate strategy that called for a 33% reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. When that document was written, Russia's planners did not expect to reach carbon neutrality until as late as 2100.

  Coal extraction and consumption receive active state subsidies, running counter to any rapid move away from high-carbon energy. Steel and aluminium decarbonization efforts were set back further by the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the international sanctions that followed.

  Reporting military greenhouse gas emissions is voluntary under international frameworks. As of 2024, no military emissions data has been available for any period since before the 2022 invasion. That absence leaves a portion of Russia's total climate footprint beyond current accounting.

  China's investments in solar power and electric vehicles may eventually reduce its appetite for Russian oil and gas. If that shift accelerates, external economic pressure on Russia's fossil fuel revenues may accomplish what its domestic climate strategy has not.