Who coined the term regression analysis and what did it originally mean?
Francis Galton coined the term in the 19th century to describe a biological phenomenon: the heights of descendants of tall ancestors tend to regress down toward a normal average. Galton's use was strictly biological; Udny Yule and Karl Pearson later extended it to a general statistical context.
Who first published the method of least squares used in regression analysis?
Adrien-Marie Legendre published the method of least squares in 1805, and Carl Friedrich Gauss published his own account in 1809. Both applied it to determining the orbits of comets and minor planets from astronomical observations.
What are the two main purposes of regression analysis?
Regression analysis is used for prediction and forecasting, and for inferring causal relationships between variables. Using regression for either purpose requires the researcher to justify why the observed relationships apply to the new context or carry a causal interpretation.
What is the Gauss-Markov theorem and why does it matter for regression analysis?
The Gauss-Markov theorem identifies conditions under which least squares estimates are unbiased, consistent, and efficient among all linear unbiased estimators. Gauss published an early form of this result in 1821 as part of a further development of the theory of least squares.
How long did a single regression calculation take before modern computers?
Before 1970, a single regression could take up to 24 hours to complete. Economists in the 1950s and 1960s used electromechanical desk calculators for this work.
What is the difference between interpolation and extrapolation in regression analysis?
Interpolation means predicting within the range of values used to fit the model; extrapolation means predicting outside that range. Extrapolation relies heavily on the regression assumptions, and prediction intervals expand rapidly as the independent variables move beyond the observed data range.