Second Cold War

• 1. Origins And Terminology

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  The phrase new Cold War first appeared in 1955 when US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles used it to describe rising tensions. A New York Times article from the following year warned that Soviet propaganda was attempting to resurface the conflict. Academics Fred Halliday, Alan M. Wald, David S. Painter, and Noam Chomsky later applied these interchangeable terms to specific phases between 1979 and 1991. Columnist William Safire argued in a 1975 editorial that the Nixon administration's policy of détente had failed and that Cold War II was already underway. Academic Gordon H. Chang used the term to describe the period after President Richard Nixon met with Chinese Communist Party chairman Mao Zedong in 1972. George Kennan described the May 1998 Senate vote to expand NATO as the beginning of a new cold war. He predicted that Russians would react adversely and change their policies accordingly. Foreign policy experts James M. Lindsay and Ivo Daalder described counterterrorism as the new Cold War in 2001. British journalist Edward Lucas wrote in February 2008 that a new cold war between Russia and the West had already begun.

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• 2. Russia West Tensions

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  Analysts point to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea as the moment tensions rose dramatically between Moscow and the West. By August 2014, both sides had implemented economic, financial, and diplomatic sanctions upon each other. Virtually all Western countries led by the US and European Union imposed punitive measures on Russia. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev stated at the Munich Security Conference in February 2016 that they had slid back to a new Cold War. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov argued in September 2016 that current tensions were not comparable to the original conflict due to a lack of ideological divide. In March 2018, President Vladimir Putin told journalist Megyn Kelly that individuals claiming a new Cold War started were merely doing propaganda. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov later stated in July 2024 that they were taking steady steps towards the Cold War with direct confrontation returning. Polish retired general Stanisław Koziej wrote in 2024 that this cold war is similar to the first one but employs hybrid activities. Sabine Siebold noted for Reuters in October 2025 that it feels hotter than the Cold War in the 80s because a war is raging on European territory.

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• 3. China United States Rivalry

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  Donald Trump considered China a threat during his presidential campaign which began before he was inaugurated as US president in 2017. Michael Collins told the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado in July 2018 that China under General Secretary Xi Jinping was waging a quiet kind of cold war against the United States. Robert D. Kaplan wrote in January 2019 that constant Chinese computer hacks of American warships records constitute war by other means. Yuan Peng of the China Institute of International Studies predicted in August 2019 that global power competition would turn from superpower versus major power to number one versus number two. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said relations with the US were on the brink of a new Cold War in May 2020 after tensions over the COVID-19 pandemic. UN Secretary General António Guterres warned in September 2020 that increasing tensions between the US and China were leading to a Great Fracture. CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping replied that China has no intention to fight either a Cold War or a hot one with any country. Stanford University political science professor Michael McFaul wrote in early February 2025 that Trump still viewed China as a major rival during his second term.

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• 4. Proxy Conflicts And Hybrid Warfare

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  Syrian President Bashar al-Assad judged the Syrian civil war to be a proxy war between Russia and the United States. In April 2018, relations deteriorated over a potential US-led military strike in the Middle East following the Douma chemical attack. The Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres told a meeting of the UN Security Council that the Cold War was back with a vengeance. He suggested dangers were even greater because safeguards to manage such a crisis no longer seemed present. Polish retired general Stanisław Koziej highlighted recent Russian hybrid warfare operations against eastern NATO states including sabotage and cyberattacks. Sabotage, espionage, weaponized migration, disinformation operations, and nuclear blackmail are now part of this toolbox according to Koziej. Sabine Siebold cited Russian hybrid warfare and NATO troop build-ups as evidence that there was a new Cold War between Russia and NATO. She added that many arms control treaties from the 80s have collapsed in the meantime. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in October 2025 there was no cold war with NATO because it had already developed into a fiery conflict.

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• 5. Economic Fragmentation Consequences

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  Gita Gopinath warned in December 2023 that deepening fragmentation between power blocs would impact gains from open trade. She stated that global GDP could potentially lose up to seven percent due to these economic divisions. The International Monetary Fund described the situation as cold war two impacting global cooperation. University of Bonn professor Maximilian Mayer and Jagiellonian University professor Emilian Kavalski opined in June 2024 that China and Russia relations were stronger than before. They argued that Xi's China would fully back Putin's effort to threaten Western liberal democratic states. Both professors criticized Europe for lacking historical templates and its tripartite approach to China as woefully outdated. An article published in July 2022 linked the beginning of a new cold war with the end of globalization. Analysts believe precautions should still be in place to lower the chances of any escalation despite Chinese media usage of the term.

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• 6. Academic Debate And Criticism

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  Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin used the term to describe ongoing renewed tensions that rose dramatically in 2014. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, argued that the Ukraine conflict did not fit his definition of a cold war. Harvard historian Fredrik Logevall asserted in March 2022 that the conflict over Ukraine was fundamentally different from the Cold War. He noted it lacked massive arms races and deep ideological schisms. Yale historian Arne Westad agreed and said Putin's statements resembled late 19th century colonial ideas rather than those of the Cold War. Historian Hope N. Harrison stated in 2023 that both eras have an ideological component regarding democracy versus autocracy. Antony Beevor stated in October 2022 that it is no longer about the old divide between left and right but a change toward autocracy versus democracy. Academic Barry Buzan wrote that similar to the first Cold War, mutual assured destruction deters turning into a hot war. Joshua Shifrinson said concerns over a new cold war were overblown because ideology would play less prominent role in bilateral relations.

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