When did the Second Cold War begin according to most analysts?
Most analysts point to Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine as the practical start of the Second Cold War. Carnegie Moscow Center director Dmitri Trenin used the term to describe the tensions that rose dramatically in 2014, and political scientist Robert Legvold argued that a new cold war between Russia and the West began that year when Russia annexed Crimea and supported an insurgency in eastern Ukraine.
Who first used the phrase "new Cold War"?
US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles first used the phrase "new Cold War" in 1955. The term appeared again in a 1956 New York Times article warning of Soviet propaganda promoting the Cold War's resurgence.
How does the Second Cold War differ from the original Cold War?
Historians and analysts identify several differences. Niall Ferguson described China as the senior partner and Russia as the junior partner in the Second Cold War, reversing the original dynamic. A September 2023 article in Geopolitics cited higher economic interdependence and network-based competition in infrastructure, finance, and digital networks as key distinctions. Historian Arne Westad noted that Putin's justifications for the war in Ukraine resembled nineteenth-century colonial thinking rather than Cold War ideology.
What warning did George Kennan give about NATO expansion and a new Cold War?
In May 1998, George Kennan described the US Senate vote to expand NATO to include Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic as "the beginning of a new cold war". He predicted that "the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies".
What role does China play in the Second Cold War?
China is widely described as the primary US rival in the Second Cold War. In July 2018, CIA deputy assistant director Michael Collins told the Aspen Security Forum that China under Xi Jinping was waging "a quiet kind of cold war" against the United States. IMF first deputy managing director Gita Gopinath warned in December 2023 that fragmentation between US-led and China-Russia-led blocs could cost the world up to 7 trillion in trade gains.
How has Africa become a theatre of the Second Cold War?
In July 2022, France, the United States, and Russia all scheduled simultaneous high-level diplomatic visits to Africa. Democracy Works analyst William Gumede described the competition as resembling a new Cold War playing out on the continent, with rival powers seeking influence. A September 2023 Foreign Affairs article by USC professor Brett L. Carter warned that China's growing role in Africa, if unchecked, risked pushing weakened African democracies back toward authoritarianism.