John Maynard Keynes
John Maynard Keynes was born in Cambridge on the 5th of June 1883, the son of an economist father and a mother who would go on to become her town's second female mayor. Time magazine, when naming him one of its Most Important People of the Century in 1999, put his contribution bluntly: his radical idea that governments should spend money they don't have may have saved capitalism. That is a claim worth examining carefully. How did a mathematician-turned-civil servant arrive at ideas so world-altering that entire decades of prosperity would later be attributed to them? And why, after decades of dominance, did those ideas fall from favour, only to come roaring back during the worst financial crisis since the Depression he had lived through? The answers run through a peace conference in Paris that disgusted him, a general theory that overturned centuries of economic orthodoxy, and a proposal for a world currency called the bancor that nearly became the foundation of the postwar order.
Ralph Goodchild, headmaster of St Faith's preparatory school, wrote in 1896 that Keynes was "head and shoulders above all the other boys in the school." That verdict had been a long time coming. Keynes had started at the kindergarten of the Perse School for Girls in January 1889, at five and a half, already showing a talent for arithmetic despite recurring bouts of poor health that kept him away for long stretches. By 1894 he was top of his class. By 1897 he had won a King's Scholarship to Eton College.
At Eton he added classics and history to his mathematical gifts, winning the Tomline Prize for mathematics in 1901. In 1902 he moved to King's College, Cambridge, on another scholarship, this time to read mathematics. Alfred Marshall himself begged Keynes to become an economist, though Keynes's own interests pulled him towards philosophy, especially the ethical thought of G. E. Moore. He received a first-class BA in mathematics in May 1904.
His formal training in economics amounted to a single term of lectures taken informally as a graduate student. Everything else he absorbed through debate, reading, and contact. He was president of the Cambridge Union Society and the Cambridge University Liberal Club, an active member of the semi-secretive Cambridge Apostles, and a man who, according to Harry Johnson, carried from his upbringing a lasting confidence that he could find a solution to whatever problem he turned his attention to. That optimism, Johnson wrote, was a key to understanding everything that followed. Keynes took his civil service exams in 1906, which would open the door to the first chapter of his public life.
In January 1915 Keynes took up an official post at the Treasury, having already helped persuade the Chancellor, then Lloyd George, not to suspend gold payments at the outbreak of hostilities. Among his duties was the acquisition of scarce currencies. According to economist Robert Lekachman, Keynes's "nerve and mastery became legendary" from these years. In one celebrated episode, he assembled a supply of Spanish pesetas and then, rather than hand them over, sold them all at once to break the market, driving down the price and solving the problem at a stroke.
His wartime success earned him the appointment that would shape the rest of his intellectual life: financial representative for the Treasury at the 1919 Versailles peace conference. Keynes's aim was to prevent Germany's reparations burden from being set so high that it would wreck not only the German economy but the wider world's ability to trade. He was largely shut out of the formal high-level talks. That role went instead to Lord Sumner and Lord Cunliffe, nicknamed the Heavenly Twins for the astronomically large payments they wished to extract from Germany.
The three principal players at Paris were Lloyd George, France's Georges Clemenceau, and America's President Woodrow Wilson. Wilson had initially favoured lenient terms, fearing that harsh conditions could stoke extremism. Lloyd George and Clemenceau were able to pressure him to include pensions in the reparations bill. Near the end of the conference Keynes produced a plan for a radical writing-down of war debts, which Lloyd George thought might be acceptable at home; America rejected it.
Keynes resigned from the Treasury in disgust. He turned down a chairmanship of the British Bank of Northern Commerce, a position offering a salary of two thousand pounds for a morning per week of work. Instead he wrote The Economic Consequences of the Peace, published in 1919. In it he warned: "If we aim deliberately at the impoverishment of Central Europe, vengeance, I dare predict, will not limp." His followers later pointed to the German hyperinflation of 1923 and the collapse of the Weimar Republic as vindication. Historian Ruth Henig and others have argued that the treaty was not in practice as harsh as Keynes claimed, and historian Stephen Schuker has shown that capital inflows from American loans exceeded German out-payments by a wide margin. Whatever the historical verdict, the book made Keynes internationally famous and permanently estranged from the British establishment for years afterward.
Keynes had begun examining the relationship between unemployment, money, and prices in the 1920s, work that appeared in the two-volume Treatise on Money in 1930. A central claim there was that if savings outpace investment, perhaps because interest rates are too high, unemployment will rise. He also attacked the use of the wholesale price index to justify Britain's return to the gold standard in 1925, arguing the index ignored changes in service and labour costs.
At the height of the Depression, in 1933, he published The Means to Prosperity, which contained one of the first explicit treatments of the multiplier effect and was sent to the newly elected President Franklin D. Roosevelt. He also met Roosevelt face-to-face in 1934. According to Robert Skidelsky, it was only after 1939 that Keynes's ideas began to have more than marginal influence on US economic policy.
The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money appeared in 1936, researched and indexed by his student David Bensusan-Butt. It challenged what Keynes called classical economics, which held that markets, left free, would naturally establish full employment. Keynes thought this was a special case suited only to 19th-century conditions. Classical economists had relied on Say's Law, the idea that supply creates its own demand. Keynes introduced the concept of price stickiness: workers often refuse wage cuts even when classical theory says it would be rational to accept them. Without the assumption that wages adjust freely downward, the automatic return to full employment breaks down.
Instead, Keynes argued that aggregate demand, the sum of consumption and investment, governs the overall level of economic activity. A fall in demand can trap an economy in a stable state of high unemployment with no internal mechanism for escape. "Let us be up and doing, using our idle resources to increase our wealth," he had written in 1928. The General Theory was the formal argument for why government spending could break that trap. It is often described as the foundation of modern macroeconomics, a title that even critics of Keynesian policy have found hard to dispute. Keynes himself had only limited participation in the theoretical debates that followed its publication, suffering a heart attack in 1937 that forced him into long periods of rest.
In September 1941 Keynes was proposed as a director of the Bank of England, and the following April he began a full term. In June 1942, on the 7th of July, he was gazetted as Baron Keynes of Tilton in the County of Sussex, taking his seat in the House of Lords on the Liberal Party benches.
His most ambitious project came at the mid-1944 negotiations at Bretton Woods, where Keynes led the British delegation and chaired the World Bank commission. His plan called for the creation of a common world unit of currency, the bancor, which would be exchangeable with national currencies at fixed rates. An International Clearing Union would manage the system, and crucially, it would place obligations on surplus countries as well as deficit ones to correct trade imbalances. The United States, then the world's largest creditor, rejected the principle that creditors and debtors should be treated as equally responsible for imbalances. The outcomes followed the more conservative plans of Harry Dexter White.
The institutions that emerged, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, reflected the American vision rather than Keynes's. According to US economist J. Bradford DeLong, on almost every point where Keynes was overruled by the Americans, events later proved him correct. Geoffrey Crowther, then editor of The Economist, captured the stakes: "If the economic relationships between nations are not, by one means or another, brought fairly close to balance, then there is no set of financial arrangements that can rescue the world from the impoverishing results of chaos."
Keynes accepted the compromise. On signing, he said that if the institutions stayed true to their founding principles, "the brotherhood of man will have become more than a phrase." Just before his death on the 21st of April 1946, he told Henry Clay, a professor of social economics and advisor to the Bank of England, that he found himself increasingly relying on Adam Smith's "invisible hand" to help Britain out of the economic hole it was in, the same invisible hand he had tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years before.
From the end of the Great Depression to the mid-1970s, Keynes provided the main inspiration for economic policymakers across the Western world. John Kenneth Galbraith, then a US government official charged with controlling inflation, said the economic rebound from wartime spending could not have given a better demonstration of Keynesian ideas. Professor Gordon Fletcher wrote that the 1950s and 1960s, when Keynes's influence was at its peak, appear in retrospect as a golden age of capitalism. In late 1965 Time magazine ran a cover article with a quote from Milton Friedman, later echoed by President Richard Nixon: "We are all Keynesians now."
Friedman had not meant the phrase as a compliment. He had been building a case against Keynesian economics since the mid-1950s, and his 1963 publication of A Monetary History of the United States sharpened that critique. In 1968 he published a paper arguing that the fixed inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation predicted by the Phillips curve did not exist, and that sustained Keynesian policies could produce both simultaneously. That phenomenon, soon called stagflation, appeared in both the US and Britain in the early 1970s, worsening after the 1973 oil crisis. Friedrich Hayek had founded the Mont Pelerin Society in 1947 specifically to nurture intellectual alternatives to Keynesianism; its early members included Ludwig von Mises and the then-young Friedman. By 1979 Keynesian economics had been officially discarded by the British Government.
The 2008 financial crisis reversed the current. On the 7th of September 2008, the US Government announced it would nationalise Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. British Chancellor Alistair Darling cited Keynes directly when announcing substantial fiscal stimulus in October of that year. Presidents, prime ministers, and central bank governors reached for Keynesian tools across the developed world. In March 2009, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, came out in favour of Keynes's original bancor idea, proposing a gradual expansion of IMF special drawing rights. That April, leaders at the G-20 London summit agreed to allow the IMF to create two hundred and fifty billion dollars' worth of those rights, to be distributed globally, an outcome Keynes himself had argued for sixty years earlier.
At the start of his career, Keynes was a committed free trader, close in outlook to Alfred Marshall. The 1929 crisis changed that. On the 5th of November 1929, giving evidence to the Macmillan Committee, he argued that tariffs on imports would help rebalance Britain's trade. By January 1930 he was proposing a formal protection system at the Economic Advisory Council. By the autumn of that year he was calling for a uniform tariff of ten percent on all imports, matched by export subsidies of the same rate.
His intellectual case against free trade rested on what he saw as the unrealistic assumptions of the underlying theory. Ricardian comparative advantage assumed that workers displaced from one industry could move freely to another, accepting lower wages until they found new jobs. Keynes called this assumption "nonsense" in the Daily Mail of the 13th of March 1931, pointing out that changing jobs involves search costs and retraining, and is not always possible at all. He also questioned the theory's static character: by locking in comparative advantages as they happened to stand at a given moment, it could, in his view, waste national resources over time.
In July 1933 he published National Self-Sufficiency in the New Statesman and Nation, where he wrote: "I sympathize, therefore, with those who would minimize, rather than with those who would maximize, economic entanglement among nations. Ideas, knowledge, science, hospitality, travel, these are the things which should of their nature be international. But let goods be homespun whenever it is reasonably and conveniently possible, and, above all, let finance be primarily national." He distinguished sharply between the free movement of ideas, which he endorsed without reservation, and the free movement of goods and capital, which he came to regard with deep suspicion. By the time he was corresponding with James Meade and Marcus Fleming in the 1940s on the relative merits of quotas and currency depreciation, he had concluded that quotas could be more effective than devaluation in correcting external imbalances, a position that placed him firmly outside the free-trade orthodoxy he had once defended.
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Common questions
Who was John Maynard Keynes and why is he important?
John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) was an English economist whose ideas form the basis of Keynesian economics and its offshoots. He has been called the "father of macroeconomics" and is considered one of the most influential economists of the 20th century. Time magazine named him one of its Most Important People of the Century in 1999, reporting that his idea that governments should spend money they don't have may have saved capitalism.
What is The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money about?
Published in 1936, The General Theory argues that aggregate demand, the sum of consumption and investment, determines the overall level of economic activity. Keynes challenged the classical view that free markets automatically restore full employment, introducing the concept of price stickiness to explain why wages do not adjust freely downward. The book advocated government spending to stimulate demand during periods of high unemployment and is often described as the foundation of modern macroeconomics.
What did Keynes argue about the Treaty of Versailles?
In The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), Keynes argued that the reparations imposed on Germany were so severe they would damage not only the German economy but global trade as a whole. He warned that deliberate impoverishment of Central Europe would invite vengeance and eventual catastrophe. His followers later cited the German hyperinflation of 1923 and the rise of the Nazi regime as vindication, though historians such as Ruth Henig have argued the treaty was not in practice as harsh as Keynes claimed.
What was Keynes's bancor proposal at Bretton Woods?
At the mid-1944 Bretton Woods negotiations, Keynes proposed a common world currency called the bancor, exchangeable with national currencies at fixed rates, to be managed by an International Clearing Union. The plan would have placed equal obligations on surplus and deficit countries to correct trade imbalances. The United States rejected the plan, and the resulting World Bank and IMF were founded along lines closer to the American negotiator Harry Dexter White's more conservative proposals.
Why did Keynesian economics fall out of favour in the 1970s?
Keynesian economics was undermined by stagflation, the simultaneous rise of unemployment and inflation in the US and Britain in the early 1970s, a combination Milton Friedman had predicted Keynesian policies could produce. Friedman's 1963 A Monetary History of the United States and his 1968 paper on the Phillips curve provided theoretical ammunition, and the 1973 oil crisis worsened conditions. By 1979 the British Government had officially discarded Keynesian economics in favour of monetarism.
How did Keynes's views on free trade change over his career?
Keynes began his career as a committed free trader close to Alfred Marshall. From the 1929 crisis onward he shifted toward protectionism, proposing tariffs on imports to the Macmillan Committee on the 5th of November 1929 and calling for a uniform ten percent tariff in 1930. In his 1933 article National Self-Sufficiency he argued for a degree of national economic self-reliance, criticising the assumptions of Ricardian comparative advantage as unrealistic and potentially wasteful of national resources.
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