Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its Sixth Assessment Report in 2021. This document introduced Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as a new set of climate change scenarios. These pathways project global socioeconomic changes up to the year 2100. Researchers used these narratives to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies. The framework provides qualitative descriptions that link elements of the storylines together. Quantitative data accompanies each scenario regarding national population, urbanization and GDP per capita. Scientists can quantify these SSPs using various Integrated Assessment Models. These models explore possible future pathways for both socioeconomic and climate systems. A study published in Geoscientific Model Development in 2020 detailed projected atmospheric CO₂ concentrations across the 21st century. That research averaged simulated values generated from five integrated assessment models.
SSP1 describes a world shifting toward a more sustainable path by the end of the century. This scenario emphasizes inclusive development that respects predicted environmental boundaries. Management of the global commons slowly improves over time. Educational and health investments accelerate the demographic transition within this narrative. Economic growth shifts toward a broader emphasis on human well-being rather than pure output. Inequality reduces both across countries and within them. Consumption patterns orient toward low material growth and lower resource intensity. Driven by an increasing commitment to achieving development goals, nations prioritize sustainability. The pathway suggests a gradual but extensive transformation of global society. Environmental boundaries become central to all economic decisions made during this period.
The second scenario follows historical patterns without marked shifts in social or economic trends. Development and income growth proceeds unevenly across different regions of the globe. Some countries make relatively good progress while others fall short of expectations. Global and national institutions work toward sustainable development goals but achieve slow progress. Environmental systems experience degradation despite some improvements occurring along the way. Resource and energy use intensity declines overall even as challenges persist. Global population growth is moderate and levels off in the second half of the century. Income inequality persists or improves only slowly throughout the timeline. Vulnerability to societal and environmental changes remains a significant challenge for many populations. The world continues its current trajectory with minor adjustments rather than radical change.
A resurgent nationalism defines the third scenario known as Regional Rivalry. Concerns about competitiveness and security push countries to focus on domestic issues. Regional conflicts further drive nations to prioritize local over international cooperation. Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional security issues. Countries aim to achieve energy and food security within their own regions at the expense of broader-based development. Investments in education and technological development decline significantly under these conditions. Economic development slows down while consumption becomes material-intensive. Inequalities persist or worsen over time as global cooperation fractures. Population growth remains low in industrialized areas but high in developing countries. A low international priority for addressing environmental concerns leads to strong environmental degradation in some regions. National borders become harder lines that separate competing economic zones.
Highly unequal investments in human capital characterize the fourth scenario called Inequality. Increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power lead to growing stratification across and within countries. A gap widens between an internationally-connected society and fragmented lower-income societies. The connected sector contributes to knowledge- and capital-intensive sectors of the global economy. Fragmented societies work in labor intensive, low-tech economies instead. Social cohesion degrades and conflict and unrest become increasingly common throughout this timeline. Technology development remains high only in the high-tech economy and specific sectors. The globally connected energy sector diversifies with investments in both carbon-intensive fuels like coal and unconventional oil. Low-carbon energy sources also receive attention from these connected groups. Environmental policies focus on local issues around middle and high income areas rather than global solutions.
The fifth scenario places increasing faith in competitive markets and innovation to drive progress. Rapid technological progress and development of human capital form the path to sustainable development here. Global markets are increasingly integrated as nations pursue economic growth together. Strong investments in health, education, and institutions enhance human and social capital significantly. Economic and social development couples with the exploitation of abundant fossil fuel resources worldwide. Resource and energy intensive lifestyles emerge around the globe alongside market integration. All these factors lead to rapid growth of the global economy during the 21st century. Global population peaks and declines within the same timeframe. Local environmental problems like air pollution are successfully managed through targeted interventions. There is faith in the ability to effectively manage social and ecological systems including geo-engineering if necessary. This pathway relies heavily on resource extraction to maintain its momentum.
Common questions
When did the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change release its Sixth Assessment Report introducing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways?
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its Sixth Assessment Report in 2021. This document introduced Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as a new set of climate change scenarios.
What does SSP1 describe regarding global socioeconomic changes by the end of the century?
SSP1 describes a world shifting toward a more sustainable path by the end of the century. This scenario emphasizes inclusive development that respects predicted environmental boundaries and reduces inequality across countries and within them.
How does the Regional Rivalry scenario define national priorities compared to international cooperation?
Regional Rivalry defines national priorities through resurgent nationalism where concerns about competitiveness and security push countries to focus on domestic issues. Policies shift over time to become increasingly oriented toward national and regional security issues at the expense of broader-based development.
Which Integrated Assessment Models were used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways?
Scientists quantify these Shared Socioeconomic Pathways using various Integrated Assessment Models. A study published in Geoscientific Model Development in 2020 detailed projected atmospheric CO₂ concentrations across the 21st century based on simulated values generated from five integrated assessment models.
What characterizes the Inequality scenario regarding economic opportunity and political power?
Highly unequal investments in human capital characterize the fourth scenario called Inequality. Increasing disparities in economic opportunity and political power lead to growing stratification across and within countries with social cohesion degrading as conflict becomes common.
All sources
16 references cited across the entry
- 4journalScenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °CJoeri Rogelj et al. — 2018
- 5webSSP Database
- 6webExplainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate changeZeke Hausfather — 2018-04-19
- 7journalTowards diverse agricultural land uses: socio-ecological implications of European agricultural pathways for a Swiss orchard regionTakamasa Nishizawa et al. — 2023-07-22
- 8journalEcological–Economic Modelling of Traditional Agroforestry to Promote Farmland Biodiversity with Cost-Effective PaymentsTakamasa Nishizawa et al. — 2022
- 9journalThe Global Methane Budget 2000–2017Marielle Saunois et al. — 15 July 2020
- 10journalThe roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st centuryBrian C. O’Neill et al. — 2017-01-01
- 11journalThe Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overviewKeywan Riahi et al. — 2017-01-01
- 12journalEnergy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigmDetlef P. van Vuuren et al. — 2017-01-01
- 13journalThe marker quantification of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2: A middle-of-the-road scenario for the 21st centuryOliver Fricko et al. — 2017-01-01
- 14journalSSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic PathwaysShinichiro Fujimori et al. — 2017-01-01
- 15journalThe SSP4: A world of deepening inequalityKatherine Calvin et al. — 2017-01-01
- 16journalFossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st centuryElmar Kriegler et al. — 2017-01-01