— Ch. 1 · Origins And Emergence —
New Keynesian economics.
~5 min read · Ch. 1 of 6
In the late 1970s, Stanley Fischer published an article titled Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule. This work introduced a staggered contract model where two unions take turns setting wages for the next two periods. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond later noted that this approach contrasted sharply with John B. Taylor's earlier models from 1979 and 1980. Taylor argued that nominal wages remained constant over the entire contract life. Both Fischer and Taylor agreed that only current wage setters used the latest information while half the economy relied on old data. These early theories established that fixed nominal wages allowed monetary authorities to control employment rates by adjusting money supply. Critics like Robert Lucas had previously challenged Keynesian economics using rational expectations. New Keynesians responded by building microeconomic foundations into their models to explain why markets might fail to clear instantly.
Microeconomic Foundations
George Akerlof and Janet Yellen proposed in 1985 that bounded rationality caused firms to avoid changing prices unless benefits exceeded small thresholds. Gregory Mankiw expanded this concept through menu costs, which represent lump-sum expenses incurred when altering price tags. Olivier Blanchard and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki extended these ideas to include both wages and prices in their influential article Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand. Laurence Ball and David Romer demonstrated in 1990 how real rigidities interacted with nominal ones to create significant disequilibrium. Real rigidities occur whenever a firm remains slow to adjust its actual prices despite changing economic conditions. Huw Dixon showed that even if menu costs applied to just one sector, they influenced the rest of the economy. This interaction made prices less responsive to demand changes across the entire market. The fiscal multiplier increased with the degree of imperfect competition found in output markets. When government spending rose, higher taxes reduced leisure and consumption simultaneously. Households substituted away from work toward leisure as real wages fell under imperfect competition.