— Ch. 1 · Origins And Inventors —
Kalman filter.
~5 min read · Ch. 1 of 6
Hungarian émigré Rudolf E. Kálmán published a technical paper in 1960 that introduced the core algorithm now bearing his name. Earlier work by Thorvald Nicolai Thiele and Peter Swerling had developed similar methods, but Kálmán's formulation became the standard for recursive estimation. Richard S. Bucy of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory contributed to the theory during the early 1960s, leading to the joint designation Kalman, Bucy filtering. Stanley F. Schmidt is generally credited with developing the first practical implementation at NASA Ames Research Center. Schmidt realized the filter could be divided into two distinct parts: one handling time periods between sensor outputs and another incorporating measurements. This division allowed the filter to solve the nonlinear problem of trajectory estimation for the Apollo program. The digital filter was incorporated into the Apollo navigation computer following Kálmán's visit to NASA Ames. Some equations appeared in papers by Soviet mathematician Ruslan Stratonovich before summer 1961, when Kalman met him during a conference in Moscow.
Prediction Update Cycle
The algorithm operates via a two-phase process known as prediction and update. In the prediction phase, the filter produces estimates of current state variables including their uncertainties using a state transition model. Once the outcome of the next measurement appears, these estimates are updated using a weighted average. More weight gets given to estimates with greater certainty while less weight goes to those with higher uncertainty. The algorithm functions recursively without requiring any additional past information beyond the present input measurements and the previously calculated state matrix. A truck equipped with GPS provides an example where dead reckoning offers smooth but drifting position data. The GPS unit provides noisy readings that jump around rapidly within a few meters of the real position. The Kalman filter combines the physical laws of motion with the GPS measurements to produce a better estimate than either source alone. Values with smaller estimated uncertainty get trusted more heavily during the calculation process. This recursive nature means only the last best guess is needed rather than the entire history of observations.