— Ch. 1 · Oceanic Ecosystem Shifts —
Climate change and fisheries.
~4 min read · Ch. 1 of 6
Rising ocean temperatures, acidification, and deoxygenation are altering marine habitats. These changes affect the productivity of both marine and freshwater species. Observations from 2007 indicate that these physical science factors drive significant shifts in fish distributions. The process known as calcification becomes harder for organisms like shrimp and oysters to perform. This creates cracks in the food chain because zooplankton with calcium shells form its base. Cool water copepod assemblages have moved northward as waters warm. They were replaced by warm water copepods which possess lower biomass. Atlantic cod require a diet of large copepods but their recruitment has plummeted due to this shift. The movement of these small creatures impacts high trophic level fish populations globally.
Global Production Projections
Scientific models project that global fish community biomass could decrease by as much as 30% by 2100. Fish catch of the global ocean is expected to decline by 6 percent over the same period. Tropical zones face an even steeper drop of 11 percent according to current data. Diverse models predict that total global fish catch potential may vary by less than 10 percent depending on emission trajectories. However, geographical variability remains very significant across different regions. Decreases in production are predicted for almost 85 percent of coastal countries analyzed. These nations vary widely in their capacity to adapt to such losses. Skipjack tuna and bigeye tuna populations are expected to displace further east. This shift moves fishing grounds toward Pacific islands away from Melanesia. Western Pacific canneries face disruption while food security effects remain uncertain.