— Ch. 1 · Historical Concentration Trends —
Atmospheric methane.
~5 min read · Ch. 1 of 6
The Industrial Revolution began around 1750, and since that time the amount of methane in Earth's atmosphere has grown by about 160 percent. In pre-industrial times the concentration measured 722 parts per billion. By 2019 global levels had climbed to 1866 parts per billion. This represents an increase by a factor of 2.6 and stands as the highest value recorded in at least 800,000 years. Scientists reported with very high confidence that current concentrations exceed any point in the last eight hundred thousand years. The largest annual increase occurred in 2021 when levels reached 260 percent of pre-industrial values. A record-high of 1912 parts per billion was observed in December 2020 at NOAA's Mauna Loa observatory. During the first half of 2009 globally averaged atmospheric methane rose approximately 7 nanomoles per mole compared to 2008. From 2015 to 2019 sharp rises in levels were recorded across multiple monitoring stations.
Radiative Forcing Mechanisms
Methane acts as a powerful greenhouse gas with a global warming potential eighty-four times greater than carbon dioxide over a twenty-year timeframe. Over one hundred years this figure drops to about twenty-eight times greater than CO2. Radiative forcing measures human impact on the environment in watts per square meter relative to the year 1750. The direct radiative greenhouse gas effect of methane increased by 0.5 watts per square meter according to estimates from 2007. In their 2021 Global Methane Assessment report UNEP and CCAC noted improved understanding of methane's effect on radiative forcing. Research teams led by M. Etminan in 2016 and William Collins in 2018 contributed to an upward revision since the 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Their new calculations resulted in estimates that were approximately 20 to 25 percent higher than previous methods. This water vapor produced during oxidation adds about 15 percent to methane's radiative forcing effect. Large increases in future methane could lead to surface warming that increases nonlinearly with concentration.